“Red lines” are circling the globe right now, and major alarms have just been sounded. Iran has launched dozens of drones at Israel.
Iran may have just crossed a “red line” by launching drones toward Israel, which will scramble to shoot down any incoming fire to stop the drones through sensors and the “Iron Dome” and electronic warfare platforms. A “red line” in foreign policy means an uncrossable boundary — something leaders often use to make clear that, as with a physical boundary, crossing that policy line means serious business.
Until now, it has been Iranian proxies like Hezbollah that have launched missiles at Israel. This is an extraordinary overt operation from Teheran.
Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu will have to decide how to respond and where his own “red line” is — and whether this is a limited strike or the beginning of an escalating crisis.
Reaction from the United States will also depend on whether the Biden administration considers Iran’s actions “a red line,” the degree to which this was expected and possibly forewarned by Iranian officials to the Biden administration, and what might be launched next.
President Biden is convening a meeting on an emergency basis. The White House statement reaffirms America’s “iron-clad” support for Israel.
Why now?
After Hamas launched a terrorist attack on Israeli citizens on Oct. 7, 2024, Israel responded with an assault on Gaza — a war now in its seventh month with a humanitarian disaster that is already classified as a “famine” by the administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development, Samantha Power.
Then, on April 1, without admitting to it or informing the U.S. government, Israel attacked Iran’s consulate in Damascus, killing 13 people including an important figure in the Quds force, an elite part of the Republican Guards.
Following the April 1 attack, Iran’s Supreme Leader made it clear that retribution would follow.
So, what makes today different from the many months of conflict in the Middle East? Direct confrontations between major countries are different from when nations supply weapons or assistance to a party at war. Iran, itself, has now put itself into the war mix.
Think about how major powers handle war.
Half a world away, Russia pounds Ukraine with drones and missiles and the West has avoided direct confrontation with Moscow, fearing that NATO troops on the ground could cross a “red line” triggering a nuclear strike by Putin.
What is interesting about “red lines” is that they are not always bold red or clear. We don’t know how Israel will respond, and how this impacts Israeli actions in Gaza, where an invasion of Rafah has been on hold. Iran said it launched these retaliatory strikes in “occupied territories.”
While our attention turns to Iran, there is still a ground war in Gaza to keep an eye on.
Netanyahu has made clear that he has a date in mind for the invasion of Rafah, currently a refuge for about half of Gaza’s 2.3 million people — although he won’t say the exact timing.
But publicly he has said: “We’ll go there. We’re not going to leave them. You know, I have a red line. You know what the red line is? That October 7 doesn’t happen again. Never happens again.”
Given Iran’s potential nuclear weapons status, Israel will be on high alert. In the past, Netanyahu has talked about Israel’s “red lines.” Back in 2013, in talking about Iran’ nuclear program, he warned “they’re edging up to the red line.”
Red lines are always tricky business.
The cost of issuing a red line and then backing away from the threat is losing one’s credibility, as well as public support for the intended policy outcome.
As political analyst Steven Pifer writes, “Red lines are about deterrence. The point of drawing a red line is to signal a strong, if not vital, U.S. interest and that, if the line were crossed, severe consequences would ensue.”
Should America get further involved in this conflict depends on where the red lines are drawn.
What is unique about today’s event is that we have to look in many directions at once: at Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Ukraine. And at ourselves.
Now we must keep track of multiple drones headed to multiple parts of Israel. Stay tuned.
Tara D. Sonenshine is a senior fellow at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.