Is Netanyahu’s coalition on the verge of collapse?

Angered by American abstention on a U.N. Security Council resolution that called for a ceasefire in the Gaza war without explicitly linking it to the release of Israeli hostages, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu canceled a critical trip to Washington by his leading advisors, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi, who were slated to discuss alternatives to an all-out IDF ground operation in Rafah, the last major Hamas redoubt. Two days later, Netanyahu backtracked, stating that the trip merely had been postponed for about a week, rather than canceled.

In practice, it matters little whether the two senior Israelis do come to Washington. Both are unlikely to reach any agreement with the administration — Hanegbi is a long-time leader of the settler movement, has consistently pressed for settlement expansion in the West Bank and also opposed Ariel Sharon’s 2005 decision to withdraw from Gaza.

Dermer is perhaps the prime minister’s closest political advisor. He has asserted that Israel will “fight to the end” in Gaza. Moreover, his highest priority is the preservation of the current extreme right-wing government that Netanyahu leads. And Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, the pillars of the government’s right wing, are perhaps the strongest proponents of continuing the ground war.

Netanyahu himself is equally determined to press on with the ground war in defiance of President Joe Biden’s remonstrations about the worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Netanyahu recently said that, contrary to Western media reports, he still commands the overwhelming support of the vast majority of Israelis. He sees no domestic obstacle to his prolongation of the war.

Netanyahu projects an aura of confidence that perhaps is less than justified. He may continue to ignore increasing American criticism of Israeli operations — yet his government could collapse in a matter of days.

His ultra-Orthodox Haredi partners in the governing coalition are demanding an extension of the military service exemption for young men pursuing rabbinical studies. The law exempting these students expired some time ago, and the Israeli Supreme Court has ruled that if a new law is not brought before the Knesset, Israel’s legislature, by March 31, all 66,000 students will be eligible for military service.

Thus far, Netanyahu has been unable to win coalition-wide support for extending the exemptions from conscription. On the one hand, the IDF leadership has made it clear that the demands of the war, as well as ongoing tensions on the Lebanese border, necessitate drafting the students. The top generals argue that the only other alternative is to again raise the already increased age ceiling for reserve service, placing an unfair burden on those already stretched forces. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who is deeply concerned about the state of the reserves, has insisted that he will not propose any new legislation regarding Haredi exemptions unless there is coalition-wide agreement as to its provisions

There is as yet no such agreement, however. Ben Gvir and Smotrich both support the military’s stance on the issue. So too does Benny Gantz, the former IDF chief of staff who is a key member of the war cabinet.

For their part, Netanyahu’s Haredi coalition partners are insisting that the exemptions be preserved. The Haredi leadership is threatening to bolt the coalition if its demands are not met; should it do so, the government will fall.

Desperate to preserve his coalition, Netanyahu has offered to raise the exemption for yeshiva students from the current 26 years of age to 35. That proposal has only further angered Gallant, Gantz and the generals. And the talks with the Haredim have been suspended, at least for the moment.

Netanyahu will surely attempt to coax the Haredim back to the negotiating table. He may yet succeed, as the temptation to remain in government is one that the Haredim will find hard to resist. Yet as the war drags on, emotions are boiling over, as thousands of Haredim continue to avoid service in a military that is fighting and dying to protect the country that supports them.

There are only a few days left for Netanyahu to pull yet another rabbit out of his political hat. He may yet do so, but the hat is shrinking, making it harder for that rabbit to emerge. At some point even Israel’s political Houdini may run out of wiggle room — that point could come as soon as next week.

Dov S. Zakheim is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and vice chairman of the board for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He was undersecretary of Defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer for the Department of Defense from 2001 to 2004 and a deputy undersecretary of Defense from 1985 to 1987.