To win in Ukraine, target Putin’s energy industry 

To stop Vladimir Putin’s aggressive warfare in Europe, America should encourage Ukrainian special operations to target Russia’s energy industry. As Washington debates fiercely what eventual Ukraine funding should look like, it’s time to consider a new strategy dictated by demographic reality.  

Russia has a population three times the size of Ukraine’s, and Putin intends to grind down his enemy by attrition. He is raising the military age to 70, to ensure more zombie soldiers to drive toward the front lines. The world is on a course to continue the war until America is bankrupt and millions of men in Russia and Ukraine are dead. 

But there is a way to weaken Putin and end the war without bankrupting American taxpayers. Instead of bankrolling endless production of yet more artillery shells, we should use the natural strengths of Ukraine’s military. Congress should be funding smart asymmetrical warfare, combining a strong Ukrainian defensive posture with a clandestine offense aimed at Putin’s energy production and export infrastructure.  

Cut Putin’s energy revenue 

The lifeblood of any war is money, and Putin derives his money from selling fossil fuels. Lowered American energy production has driven up the world price of oil and gas, while simultaneously opening up international markets to be supplied by Russian production. This has given Putin the windfall he needs to finance military adventurism.  

U.S. policy should encourage Ukrainian clandestine attacks specifically targeted to cripple Putin’s energy production and export facilities, as well as the railroads (the main arteries of Russian military supply lines). Attacks on Russian energy infrastructure would deprive Putin of the foreign currency he needs to purchase weapons and ammunition. That would erode his war-making ability, and give relief to the other Ukrainian forces fighting to maintain the front lines.  

Use Ukrainian special ops  

Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, the GUR (sometimes written HUR), is well positioned to accomplish its mission. The New York Times recently detailed the GUR’s years-long cooperation with CIA special operations and intelligence gathering. They have an impressive record of victories against strategic military and energy targets deep inside Russian territory, even while operating with a limited budget.  

The U.S. should focus funding on Ukrainian clandestine military operations that target railroads, export terminals, and oil and gas production facilities. Special operations produce impressive results at a fraction of the cost of traditional front-line trench warfare. Targeting Putin’s energy industry – and therefore his cash flow – would amplify that return on investment. 

Quite recently, GUR drones sank the Russian amphibious ship Caesar Kunikov in the Black Sea, and sank the missile corvette Ivanovets. They have scored many victories over the last two years, from blowing up fighter jets to destroying a fuel compound to or a rail tunnel and bypass on the only viable supply line to Russia from China and North Korea. They changed the geography of the war by launching drones at air bases hundreds of miles inside Russia. 

Threat to Putin’s power 

In addition to their military impact, these achievements also have serious policy implications. They expose the emptiness of Putin’s threats to use massive nuclear retaliation for any attack inside Russia. Ukrainian forces have been emboldened by these successes, and Russian commanders have been demoralized and replaced. 

Vladimir Putin is keenly aware of the role played by the GUR, and has tried on several occasions to assassinate the chief of the service, Kyril Budanov. Recently both Budanov and his wife were targets of separate assassination attempts. Russia’s clandestine forces also have influence inside Ukrainian bureaucratic circles, and are sure to use it to aid the service chief’s political opponents.  

A strong defensive line combined with clandestine attacks 

Faced with an overwhelming three-to-one population disadvantage, Ukraine must fight a defensive war. But Putin will win a war of attrition on the front lines. Combining a fortified defense with a concerted and unrelenting series of clandestine attacks on the source of Russian income provides the greatest promise of ending the war without utter destruction of Ukraine. It also conserves American resources to be spent on American needs. 

As Washington counts every dollar sent to Ukraine, we should direct some of that money specifically to clandestine Ukrainian efforts to deprive Vladimir Putin of his revenue stream. We should spend our money to bankrupt Putin, not America. 

Bart Marcois (@bmarcois on X) is a former career U.S. diplomat and was the principal deputy assistant secretary of energy for Policy and International Affairs. He is a frequent commentator on diplomatic and national security affairs.