Why Kim gets Trump’s love and Khamenei doesn’t

It was a scene to make you feel sorry — almost — for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his claque.

On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump stepped across the border to North Korea and was greeted by North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un who said, with great understatement, “I never expected to meet you at this place.” Trump, in turn, invited Kim to the White House “when the time is right.”

I imagine that meanwhile, in Tehran, Ayatollah Khamenei was starting to annoy Mrs. Khamenei — “I don’t get no respect!” — as he wondered why the pudgy Korean kid, who killed and kidnapped Americans and fired missiles over the heads of America’s allies, gets Trump’s engagement while all he gets is more sanctions.

Aaron David Miller thinks Trump isn’t taking ownership of the Iran file because he sees it as Obama’s project, and that is true — he campaigned against the Iran nuclear deal as “the worst deal ever negotiated” — but its more than that:

– Iran is a nuisance, but North Korea was rapidly mastering nuclear weapons and missile delivery systems and would soon be a threat to the U.S. homeland. As Commander-in-Chief, Trump had to personally take charge of eliminating the threat.  

– As a businessman, Trump saw vast economic opportunity for the world if the risk premium for the Korean Peninsula disappeared.

Let’s compare the neighborhoods:

– Iraq is key to Iran’s regional strategy, but Iraqi President Barham Salih wants no part of a U.S.-Iran scrap; Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan lack financial and political heft; secular Azerbaijan is wary of its militant neighbor; Armenia is a shambles and can’t even help itself; friendly Qatar has money and a TV station but can’t do much for Iran in a real fight. Across the Persian Gulf lie the United Arab Emirates, interested in business, not war, and Saudi Arabia, anxious to take down its regional rival.

– North Korea lives in a different place. To its north are China and Russia, two permanent members of the UN Security Council and, in China’s case, the world’s second largest economy. To the south is South Korea, home of the world’s eleventh largest economy and a vibrant exporter of cultural and technology products. Across the Sea of Japan is, well, Japan, a leading technology exporter and home of the third largest economy.

In short, Iran’s neighbors are poor, indifferent, or hostile; North Korea’s neighbors are advanced, technologically adept societies who can usher Pyongyang into the global economy.

There was some harrumphing that by stepping into North Korea Trump was giving Kim everything he wanted, but that’s because of cultural misunderstandings, and I don’t mean between Washington and Pyongyang.

Trump was a New York City property developer, a business that demands optimism, and ran the Trump Organization, which sounds big but was basically a family office. He had lawyers on retainer, but no staff of handlers, aides-de-camp, or guys counting on him to make them an Assistant Secretary.

Trump’s habits, then, bumped up against D.C.’s expectations for how a president behaves. For example:

– Meetings are for working. Many foreign policy practitioners think a meeting with an American leader is a reward for complaint behavior. But a meeting is a tool; it’s a way to start a relationship, to nurture a relationship, or to end a relationship. If a meeting in North Korea will get nuclear arms negotiations back on track, then warm up Air Force One and leave John Bolton at home.

– Visiting the opposition camp is not a sign of weakness. Despite what those books on sale at the airport tell you, making the other guy come to you is often a waste of time and opportunity. If you’re going to do something he doesn’t expect, why not do it in his country? 

Trump’s visit to North Korea did more than anything to ensure that, when Kim dies, it will be of old age.

Kim lived in Switzerland so he knows what’s possible for his country, and Trump needs a young guy who has seen the world — not a warhorse general or paranoid secret policeman — to keep up the North’s end of the bargain. Kim also has to consider the burden of the Kim dynasty — he can be the grandson who accomplished the task and secured the safety and prosperity of the realm — and the raised expectations of his cadres, who are thinking of their families’ opportunities in a growing economy.

Continuity will ensure that, even if Trump is defeated in 2020, the world will be on the path to a “semi-nuclear” North Korea, not a country neutered by a modern-day Morgenthau Plan.

Denuclearization isn’t an end in itself. It is a practical step to reducing a threat to the United States, which is the President’s first responsibility. 

James Durso (@james_durso) is the Managing Director of Corsair LLC, a supply chain consultancy. He was a professional staff member at the 2005 Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission and the Commission on Wartime Contracting in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Mr. Durso served as a U.S. Navy officer for 20 years and specialized in logistics and security assistance. His overseas military postings were in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, and he served in Iraq as a civilian transport advisor with the Coalition Provisional Authority.  He served afloat as Supply Officer of the submarine USS SKATE (SSN 578).