Why the war in Gaza won’t thwart Biden’s reelection

There’s a narrative brewing that President Joe Biden’s support for Israel could be the death knell for his reelection bid. 

Sen. Bernie Sanders, for example, has said the issue could be “decisive” in November. Headlines like “Israel Could Cost Joe Biden Re-Election” (Newsweek) and “Biden’s Stance on Israel-Hamas War Sows Reelection Risks” (Bloomberg) give the impression that the White House’s full-throated backing of Israel might wreck the president’s chances. 

As evidenced by Michigan’s primary— where more than 100,000 voters pledged “uncommitted” to protest Biden’s policies toward Israel in a state that he won by 154,000 votes in 2020 — Democrats are right to worry about the politics of the issue. Even so, the notion that Biden’s electoral fate is being dashed by the war in Gaza is overstated. 

First, Biden’s approval numbers have barely budged since Oct. 7. It’s clear that Biden’s underwater polling has been a heightened source of consternation for Democrats. Data shows Donald Trump with a nontrivial lead nationally, as well as in key swing states such as Michigan. 

Yet little of this is due to Biden’s position toward Israel. In fact, his favorability ratings have stayed almost completely constant since the conflict in Israel-Palestine erupted. On Oct. 8, the day after the brutal Hamas attack, Biden’s approval rating was a dismal 39.6 percent. Today, it’s 38.5 percent.

Second, even if Americans are increasingly divided on Israel-Palestine, almost none rank the war in Gaza as a highly salient issue. According to Gallup polling, for example, the number of voters who list it as the nation’s most important problem is under 1 percent. 

The big concerns for most Americans continue to be challenges at home: immigration (28 percent), inflation/the economy (23 percent) and poor leadership generally (20 percent). With the war in Gaza still competing for headlines with Russia’s war in Ukraine, the issue remains a second-order priority for most voters, even those attuned to foreign policy. 

Third, other politicians who have backed Israel unequivocally are doing just fine. Case in point: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Penn.), who’s frequently been seen waving an Israeli flag on Capitol Hill, who’s mocked Palestinian protesters and declared that he “would be the last man standing to be absolutely there on the Israeli side on this with no conditions.”

His numbers have never been better. According to a recent Quinnipiac poll, Fetterman’s approve-disapprove figure is +3 in Pennsylvania, compared to Biden’s -18. Almost twice as many Pennsylvanians said his stance toward Israel makes them more favorable to him compared to less. 

Fourth, Biden would be losing some pro-Israel voters if he had not come strongly to Israel’s defense after the Hamas attack. Democrats are effectively divided between those sympathizing  with Israelis and with Palestinians, so whichever “side” Biden took in the conflict was bound to alienate some supporters. 

All of this isn’t to imply that the war in Gaza isn’t taking a toll on Biden — only that the war’s effects are likely to be more broadly political, rather than strictly electoral. Earning the epithet “Genocide Joe” isn’t without its costs.

On Capitol Hill, Biden’s ability to pass legislation in a second term would be severely hampered by a progressive wing that already sees him as a pariah. Biden had problems with his left flank before the war. Now, with Rep. Ilhan Omar (D.-Minn.) accusing Biden of “greenlighting the massacre of Palestinians,” that task will only grow harder.

The White House also risks looking ineffectual to both domestic and international audiences. Biden was quick to state his firm support for Israel’s right to defend itself after Oct. 7, and he bet that his public embrace of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would yield private space for urging restraint. But that leverage hasn’t materialized. 

In the early months of the war, Israel eschewed the administration’s “behind closed doors” advice to conduct a more surgical campaign in Gaza. In subsequent weeks, despite tireless diplomatic efforts from Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Netanyahu stonewalled any discussion of a viable “endgame” scenario, rejecting the premise of Biden’s wished-for two-state solution.

That has left Biden complaining that Netanyahu is “giving him hell,” and lamenting his inability to force Israel to back down from what he’s called an “indiscriminate” and “over the top” bombing campaign. In this way, the war has demonstrated the limits of America’s, and Biden’s, leverage, though Biden has also declined to condition U.S. military aid to Israel.

The Israel-Palestine conflict is politically delicate, and the White House continues to navigate a maze of on-the-ground policy challenges in Gaza. Even in a tight election, the war is unlikely to be the pivotal difference for Biden at the ballot box. Still, the trajectory of the conflict and America’s role within it remain a political flashpoint.

Thomas Gift is associate professor of political science and founding director of the Centre on US Politics at University College London. Follow him @TGiftiv. Julie Norman is associate professor in politics and international relations, deputy director of the Centre on US Politics at University College London, and senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. Follow her @DrJulieNorman2.