Eventually, it will be “the day after” in Gaza, even though the concept goes against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s personal objective to remain in power.
The Biden administration, along with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and other states, is laying out parameters not just for what post-conflict Gaza should look like, but also for Israel and Palestine and indeed the entire Middle East.
Four general consensus points emerge:
- Normalization of relations between Israel and most Arab countries and Israel’s economic and security integration. That means mostly Sunni-Israeli cooperation against Iran and its “axis of resistance” — Hamas and Shiite militia groups across the region.
- Reconstruction of Gaza — estimated at $20 billion but likely higher — with large contributions by the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Without Hamas, the focus can be on actual rebuilding, not tunnel construction.
- A reformed and reconstituted Palestinian Authority — without the 88-year-old Mahmoud Abbas — that will govern in both the West Bank and Gaza Strip. That Hamas must not be part of the governing structure in Gaza on “the day after” is something on which Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and the U.S. all agree.
- A solid timetable for the establishment of a Palestinian state and concrete moves toward that goal. The consequences of failure to move in that direction could include recognition of a Palestinian state by the West and leading Arab states. If that happens, recognition of the Palestinian state will cascade from all over the world.
Netanyahu is certainly prepared to move forward with normalization with Saudi Arabia, other Arab countries and an alliance against Iran. He is also prepared for the GCC and the West to pay for the reconstruction of Gaza. But Netanyahu and his radical right-wing coalition are not prepared to take anysteps of the third and fourth prong of the “day after” consensus. On Feb. 18, the Netanyahu cabinet passed a resolution rejecting “international diktats” and unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state.
What Netanyahu and his extremist cabinet fail to grasp is that the dynamics of the conflict have changed. The Palestinian issue can no longer be ignored. Netanyahu can no longer rail against Hamas publicly while symbiotically supporting them under the table to weaken the Palestinian Authority.
Israel, with Netanyahu gone (only 15 percent of Israelis want him to continue as prime minister), will have to deal with a revamped Palestinian Authority and with the idea of a Palestinian state. Israelis will have to proceed from a weakened position due to Netanyahu’s 15 years of avoiding really taking on Hamas and dealing with the Palestinian question. Indeed, policy-wise, until instigating the disastrous judicial coup in Jan. 2023, Netanyahu avoided most anything other than producing soundbites.
The ISIS-like Hamas massacres on Oct. 7 brought the fight into Israeli territory, resulting in a major paradigm shift. The conflicts in the south and the north of Israel have created 200,000 internal Israeli refugees. Given the volatility of the escalating conflict with Hezbollah, the evacuated Israeli communities in the north will not return soon, while certain communities in the south have target dates to return.
The exodus from farming communities north and south has caused grievous damage to Israeli agriculture, such that a new brand of “tourism” has been created whereby Israelis and foreigners go to pick the fruit and vegetables on abandoned kibbutzim and farms before the crops die on the vine.
Israel has called up 287,000 reserve soldiers — the largest call-up in its history. This has taken a huge toll on the Israeli economy, especially on the heels of the attempted judicial coup, which caused foreign investment in Israel to plunge in 2023 even before Oct. 7. On Feb. 9, Moody’s downgraded Israel’s credit rating from A1 to A2 and critically changed its outlook to negative — a further hit on the Israeli economy.
Incredibly, Netanyahu and his fanatical coalition believe that Israel can return to the pre-Oct. 7 status quo in which 6 million Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza are ignored; radical West Bank settlers are given free rein to intimidate, injure, evict and destroy crops in surrounding Arab villages; and that Israel will be able to control Gaza unilaterally, normalize relations with the Arab world and have the Gulf states pay for Gaza reconstruction — with no difficult choices to make.
On the “day after,” Israel will pay a heavy price for 15 years of Netanyahu’s disastrous rule.
Jonathan D. Strum is an international lawyer and businessman based in Washington D.C. and the Middle East. From 1991 to 2005, he was an Adjunct Professor of International Law at Georgetown University Law Center.