To read the headlines, one could be forgiven for thinking that democracy is in terminal decline around the world. Yet for all the challenges we face, 2024 is set to be a historic year for elections. Nearly 100 countries are scheduled to hold electoral contests, and more than half the global population lives in countries that will go to the polls.
No election is perfect, but billions of voters turning out to hold their leaders accountable and elect new ones represent a compelling case that autocracy is not the wave of the future.
Not all of these elections will be free or fair. Some, in countries such as Russia and Iran, will be outright shams. But this volume of electoral activity is a testament to the very real progress that has been made in advancing political freedom worldwide. Indeed, the fact that more people will be voting in Asia than live in China is a reminder that Beijing’s totalitarianism makes it an outlier even in its own region.
This is not to understate the serious threats facing the free world. Authoritarian aggression is on the march, from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine to the Hamas-Iran assault on Israel to China’s menacing of Taiwan. Autocrats are also playing offense by deploying economic coercion and sophisticated campaigns of political interference against free societies.
The case of Taiwan — which will hold general elections on Jan. 13 — is instructive. Contrast Taiwan’s vibrant democracy with the faltering top-down regime in mainland China, and you’ll understand one of the key reasons Beijing cannot tolerate an independent Taiwan. The mere fact of millions of Taiwanese going to the polls shows citizens of mainland China that there is no inherent cultural reason they should not also be a self-governing people.
The democratic model has repeatedly demonstrated its superiority to authoritarianism. Authoritarian governments inevitably become sclerotic, insulated from reality, and unable to deliver for their people precisely because they lack free elections that reflect the genuine priorities of citizens. Leaders lack the knowledge they need to make good decisions in the absence of political competition, which might otherwise generate fresh approaches to policy challenges and allow the free exchange of information.
This makes authoritarians far more vulnerable to economic, social, and political instability. It also leaves them open to catastrophic strategic mistakes, such as Putin’s belief Ukraine would fall without a fight.
Alliances between democracies are stronger than those of autocracies because they are rooted in common values. America supports the rise of one Asian giant, India, in part because it is a democracy. China’s opaque authoritarianism, in contrast, makes its power so menacing to free societies on both sides of the Pacific.
Or consider how NATO rallied together in response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In contrast, authoritarian partnerships are far more brittle, subject to disruption and distrust. Does anyone really believe that the Sino-Russian axis could be as strong as, for instance, the relationship between the U.S. and Japan?
Economically, democracies outperform autocracies. Their citizens are, on average, six times wealthier. Culture is not the driver here, but politics, as we see in comparing North Korea with South Korea. According to the Atlantic Council’s Freedom and Prosperity Index, “66 percent of the variation in prosperity around the world can be explained by freedom.”
This makes sense: Property rights, rule of law, and sound institutions secure capital and investment, promote entrepreneurial aspiration, and generate inclusive growth with minimal corruption. An astounding 86 percent of global portfolio investment comes from the U.S. and U.S.-aligned countries — with few indicators to suggest that China and its benighted vassal states will supplant them any time soon. In China, capital flight now exceeds inbound investment, attesting to the systemic weaknesses of Xi Jinping’s centralized and politically-directed economic model.
It’s no accident that the global expansion of democracy occurred at a time of unprecedented American power. U.S. leadership has created the conditions in which free markets and free people can thrive. Conversely, when the United States turns inward, authoritarian malefactors have been quick to fill the vacuum.
If the free world is to prevail over the tyrants who seek its destruction, America must stand up for our democratic friends and lead, not retreat. That means investing in the conditions for free and fair elections in developing democracies, and creating inroads with potential partners who are being courted by authoritarian powers. It also means defending democracies under assault — like Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan — and doing everything in our power to support the forces of democratic change, such as the women-led protest movement in Iran.
Those who argue that Americans don’t care about foreign policy should consider the lessons of history. American presidents suffer when they are viewed as abdicating our global leadership role. President Biden’s public approval rating turned negative when he abandoned Afghanistan.
What’s more, polling by the Reagan Institute suggests that a clear majority of Americans (7.5 out of 10) want the U.S. to maintain its global leadership role, and almost 3 in 4 believe that Washington, wherever possible, should stand up for human rights and democracy in international affairs.
As we look ahead to 2024, we must be clear-eyed about both the promise and the peril that confronts us. The historic volume of democratic elections is one reason for optimism, and one that America in particular should celebrate.
Daniel Twining is the president of the International Republican Institute, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization working in more than 100 countries to advance democracy.