Israel has a festering problem on its northern border it cannot ignore, even as it continues operations in Gaza. Simultaneous with its operations to eliminate Hamas, the Iran-backed terrorists responsible for murdering 1,200 Israelis and kidnapping roughly 240 hostages on Oct. 7, Israel must also deter and prepare to fight an even more capable Iran-linked enemy in Lebanon: Hezbollah.
As Israel faces this “ring of fire” in its south and north, the United States can help stave off the Iranian regime and its proxies from launching a multi-front war and better ensure Israel can protect itself by rapidly re-arming it and signaling a strong military posture in the Middle East.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has indicated that he may not want to launch a first strike that opens up another full-scale front. But that does not mean Hezbollah is sitting out the conflict. It has launched hundreds of attacks against northern Israel using rockets, drones and anti-tank missiles.
These strikes have displaced roughly 80,000 Israelis living 6.2 miles from the Lebanon border. These residents will not be able to return to their homes so long as Hezbollah — particularly its special operations Radwan force specifically designed to infiltrate Israel — maintains a presence in southern Lebanon from which it can continue to launch missiles or could repeat the Oct. 7 attacks.
Restoring Israel’s security will, therefore, require finally enforcing the so-far-toothless United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which called for the disarmament of all non-state groups in southern Lebanon after the 2006 Lebanon war. U.S. officials have reportedly explored pursuing an Israel-Lebanon border deal that would include pushing Hezbollah forces away from the border.
Failure to rein in the Hezbollah threat now raises the prospects that the terrorist group might later launch a devastating multi-front war. Hezbollah’s combination of precision capabilities and a large arsenal of an estimated 150,000 rockets, missiles and drones could severely challenge Israel’s defenses throughout the country.
Israel intelligence reportedly estimates that Hezbollah could fire between 6,000-8,000 munitions at the outset of a war, at least doubling the record 3,000 projectiles that Palestinian terrorists launched on the first day of the current war.
Hezbollah’s greater capacity and capabilities than those of Hamas mean the Israel Defense Forces may need to launch a larger campaign than the one in Gaza. This would likely include coordinated ground, sea and air assaults from the outset to neutralize Hezbollah’s rocket and missile launchers, weapons stockpiles, ground or naval attacks and anti-air capabilities. Most direly, the IDF may need to task much of its capable but limited air defenses to protect its forces, leaving Israeli cities more vulnerable.
Beyond its offensive firepower, Hezbollah’s posture in Lebanon could challenge Israeli operations against it, reinforcing Israel’s need to advance rapidly and thoroughly to minimize the likelihood Hezbollah can harden or evade Israeli strikes.
Although Israel largely neutralized Hezbollah’s cross-border tunnels by 2019, the hilly and forested landscape in southern Lebanon would enable the terror group to attack Israeli forces at the border. Hezbollah also has turned civilian population centers throughout southern Lebanon into fortified positions above and below ground that could lead to close-quarters fighting.
The Biden administration has already provided political support and military assistance for Israel’s efforts to eliminate Hamas in Gaza. It should now do likewise for the Hezbollah threat.
First, the United States should indicate that it stands in lockstep with Israel as it targets Hezbollah terrorists and demands their removal from the border. The Biden administration’s rapid resupply of much-needed capabilities to Israel, particularly air defense interceptors, precision-guided munitions, tank shells and ammunition will continue to be critical to ensuring Israel can defeat Hamas as well as deter Iran or Hezbollah from expanding the conflict. The IDF favors precision-guided munitions to accurately strike targets often located in crowded environments to minimize any collateral damage.
Simultaneously, the United States can help deter a Hezbollah escalation and enhance Israeli security by maintaining a presence in the region of overwhelming combat power. The deployment of joint forces such as two aircraft carrier groups, along with their guided-missile cruisers and destroyers, an Ohio-class submarine, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense and Patriot air defense batteries and U.S. fighter aircraft, provides a clear warning to Hezbollah and Iran not to expand the war. Military readiness matched with military presence provides the best deterrence.
Hezbollah’s aggression may boil over into a multi-front war that pits Israel against an even more capable enemy than the one it currently faces in Gaza. Preventing Hezbollah from escalating to such a war and Israel’s ability to win such a deadly and destructive war should it begin will hinge on strong, consistent U.S. support.
Lt. Gen. Thomas Bergeson, USAF (ret.) served as deputy commander of U.S. Central Command and was a participant on the Jewish Institute for National Security of America’s (JINSA) 2023 Generals and Admirals program. Ari Cicurel is the assistant director of foreign policy at JINSA. The views expressed here are solely those of the authors.