With a lot at stake, renewed hope for Venezuela’s future

The Western Hemisphere is going through a critical moment, marked by the best chance for a democratic transition in Venezuela in a generation. Congress should take heed. Juan Guaidó, recognized by the United States and other countries as the interim president of Venezuela, has emerged as a legitimate leader of Venezuela, with that power vested in him under Article 233 of the Venezuelan Constitution. Less than three weeks after being named president of the National Assembly, and two days after declaring himself as interim president, Guaidó has offered a clear vision for the future of Venezuela, grounded in the return to the rule of law, and has demonstrated that he enjoys the support of a unified opposition and the Venezuelan people.

What is the vision being put forward? Guaidó has been clear on the critical first steps needed to build a better future for Venezuela. First, he has stated his commitment to stop Maduro’s usurpation of power on the basis of the framework provided by the Venezuelan Constitution, and the broad rejection of the results of the fraudulent election held in May 2018. Guaidó also has called for the creation of a transitional government, and for free and fair elections to be held as soon as the conditions are in place.

{mosads}Achieving this vision will require an expanded, coordinated international pressure campaign, and sustained unity among the opposition around a common plan of action. In this moment, we are observing a greater level of unity and engagement among the opposition than we have seen in the past, which is critical to building and sustaining popular support for a democratic transition, including among the armed forces.  

Furthermore, support for the interim government is growing steadily, and every act of recognition and support from the international community is strengthening this new democratic alternative in Venezuela. Importantly, this show of international support also sends a strong message to the Venezuelan armed forces that it is in their interest to stand on the side of the Venezuelan people.  

In addition, last week the National Assembly approved an amnesty law focused on members of the armed forces and other government officials who take steps to support the return of democracy. This is an important step as the new interim leadership thinks strategically about the incentives needed to break down one of the central pillars of support for Maduro, the Venezuelan armed forces, in order to achieve a peaceful, democratic transition.  

Of course, while support for Guaidó’s interim presidency and calls for a peaceful transition and new democratic elections have been widespread, they have not been unanimous. Notably, Russia, China, Turkey and Cuba have stood firmly in support of Maduro.  

Russia’s continued support for Maduro comes as no surprise to Venezuela-watchers, given Russia’s role as a critical economic lifeline to the Maduro regime as Venezuela’s economic situation has dramatically deteriorated, providing billions of dollars in support. Moreover, Russia’s posture vis-a-vis Venezuela offers a low-risk, high-reward way to gain a foothold and influence in the Western Hemisphere. Russia has offered Venezuela diplomatic support in international fora, most notably as a veto-holding member of the United Nations Security Council, which has prevented any meaningful action against Venezuela. Saturday’s public U.N. Security Council meeting focused on Venezuela, the first of its kind, provided an opportunity for Russia to state clearly where it stands at this critical juncture in Venezuela.  

China, for its part, has invested an estimated $70 billion in Venezuela, but here too, we are seeing signs of a slowdown in the flow of new money as Venezuela’s financial crisis has worsened. Like Russia, China has held firm in its support of Maduro as the legitimate government in Venezuela and cautioned against any external interference.

{mossecondads}In recent years, Turkey’s role in Venezuela has expanded significantly, with Turkey quickly becoming the main importer of Venezuela’s vast gold resources — imports totaled more than $900 million last year. Beyond Turkey’s growing economic engagement with Venezuela, we have seen its growing influence in the digital realm, as documented by the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab, which found that more than 42 percent of tweets in support of Maduro using the hashtag #WeAreMaduro on Jan. 23 came from Turkey. Last week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also spoke out in support of Maduro.

Cuba’s President Miguel Diaz-Canel also expressed his support for Maduro last week, consistent with Cuba’s longstanding support of the Maduro regime. Its support and influence most notably have been evidenced through the presence and support of Cuba’s security and intelligence apparatus in Venezuela.

What does the road ahead look like?

On one hand, with Guaidó in power, a humanitarian channel, critical to reducing the Venezuelan people’s suffering and addressing the region’s growing migration crisis, would be established. An economic recovery plan that seeks to attenuate the economic crisis would be implemented. Under this scenario, we also foresee concrete steps toward a return to democracy and political stability in Venezuela, opening opportunities for trade, economic growth and prosperity.

Alternately, if Maduro refuses to relinquish power, by the end of 2019 Venezuela will have an inflation rate of 10,000,000 percent and 2 million more Venezuelans will have fled the humanitarian crisis. Furthermore, a drastic increase in Russian influence over a strategic country within the Western Hemisphere will have increased instability and geopolitical tensions in the region.

The next few days and weeks, and the unwavering bipartisan U.S. support for the Venezuelan people and their new interim government, will be critical in determining which path Venezuela takes.   

Paula Garcia Tufró is the deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and is former senior U.S. government official, most recently having served in the National Security Council.

Diego Area is an associate director at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.