America is surrendering control of the Pacific to China

Obstinate State Department lawyers are doing their best to hand over to China one of America’s most important allies in the increasingly strategic Pacific Ocean.

The United States let its Compact of Free Association with the Marshall Islands expire Sept. 30, the end of the last federal fiscal year.

The negotiations over the compact, which would give the United States unrestricted military control over a large portion of the Pacific, have been extremely difficult, almost entirely because of Washington’s intransigence.

Howard Hills, a senior advisor to the U.S. negotiating team until September, blames the holdup on U.S. State Department lawyers. He said they demanded control over how funds are spent and did not want them dedicated solely to addressing the nuclear history of the Marshalls. 

“This is not just about the 67 tests,” Cleo Paskal of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told me, referring to the nuclear detonations the U.S. conducted in the Marshalls in the 1940s and 1950s. “The U.S. also shipped nuclear-contaminated soil from Nevada to be stored in the Marshalls without telling the Marshallese.”

Hills believes the State Department is worried that the characterization of funds in a new compact could open the U.S. to additional claims. The islands, Paskal told me, want a “dignified and fair settlement of the nuclear testing issue, which is key to maintaining the relationship.”

Many in the Marshalls want an acknowledgment of the effects of the testing and an apology. 

“Ambassador Joseph Yun implied in his congressional testimony that the legal department at State is saying that would reopen liability,” Paskal said. “Others say that is not the case. This is the nub of the problem. It needs to be publicly debated and decided once and for all.”

The U.S., in any event, should not be worried about liability. Washington has a moral responsibility to make the Marshalls whole, so quibbling over legal matters looks petty if not particularly disgraceful.

Moreover, the squabbling is strategically incoherent, because China is trying hard to take over the island group. Beijing’s attempts are increasingly brazen. For instance, two former Chinese nationals tried to establish an autonomous enclave at Rongelap Atoll, which would have almost certainly become China’s military staging ground in the Marshalls. Both individuals pleaded guilty to trying to bribe officials in the attempt.

China will soon be using the troubled negotiations to tar America’s image, which is already tattered due to decades of neglect of the region. It did not help that the 45-day continuing resolution didn’t include complete funding for the Federated States of Micronesia and the Marshall Islands, two of America’s three freely associated states in the Pacific.

The Biden administration wanted Congress to get behind 20-year funding programs for Palau and the two other freely associated states. The failure to include that funding has given arguments to pro-China elements throughout the Pacific that the United States is not to be trusted. 

“Watch for increased political warfare spin around the U.S. being an unreliable partner,” Paskal told Reuters, referring to Chinese efforts to turn the region in its favor.

The Marshalls case is particularly acute because three days after the continuing resolution expires the islands hold general elections. America could soon find itself turfed out by its decades-old partner.

China has already turned the nearby Solomon Islands into a protectorate. Australia and New Zealand had long held sway in that nation, which includes Guadalcanal, the scene of the iconic World War II battle. Yet egregious policies in Canberra and Wellington opened the door to China, which with largesse bought the loyalty of a large number of politicians there.

The government of Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare signed a pact with China in July on “law enforcement and security matters.” Beijing and Honiara in the deal announced they are building a “comprehensive strategic partnership.” 

In addition, the two countries inked a five-year security agreement last year. After China and the Solomons signed their 2022 arrangement, Sogavare postponed national elections, a step some fear could result in the end of democracy there.

The United States is late to the game. This February, the State Department announced it would reopen an embassy in Honiara, but Sogavare is unimpressed. He has become famous for snubbing visiting American officials as well as declining a meeting with President Joe Biden.

The Solomons are not China’s only recent conquest in the region. Beijing is hoping to improve an airfield in Kiribati, not far from Hawaii, on the pretext that tourism will benefit.

Meanwhile, the region is looking at what happens with the Marshalls compact. America has so much riding on a deal. After all, those islands are critical to its defense architecture in the Pacific.

Soon, they could be part of China’s architecture, thanks to the State Department.

Gordon G. Chang is the author of “The Coming Collapse of China” and the just-released “China Is Going to War.” Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @GordonGChang.