Although apologists for Hamas and its allies blame Israeli policy for this war, the nature of its acts of terrorism, such as mass shootings and kidnappings at a music festival, belie this. The scope and scale of Hamas’s infiltration can only be the result of months of preparation, planning and external support.
Indeed, Hamas officials confirmed Iran’s leading role in formulating its war plan, supplying them and ultimately approving the final version of its plan. Their fundamental motive is not geopolitical but rather antisemitism. This has always been Hamas’s main calling card. Its founding charter explicitly advocated murdering Jews, not just Israelis, disparaging Jews generally as “warmongering,” “Nazi,” usurpers, conquerors, and cowards.
Hamas, an acronym meaning Harakat al-Muqawama al-Islamiya (Islamic Resistance Movement), lives up to its name in Hebrew, which means violence. It is an openly terrorist organization whose raison d’etre is the violent destruction of Israel. It also is an arm of Iranian policy, which champions support for terrorism across the entire Middle East. Hamas’s actions embody terrorism, and to the extent Iran is involved, its actions may be state-sponsored terrorism.
Admittedly, both Hamas and Iran have major interests in attacking now. Both have strong incentives to scupper the Saudi-Israeli agreement now being advanced by the Biden administration because it would create a network of U.S. allies against Iran and probably enhance the Palestinian Authority at Hamas’s expense. But this plan has been in the works for months, so it is worth seeking other reasons. Indeed, several have speculated about Moscow’s involvement. Certainly, this war will, or at least Moscow hopes that it will, divert Western attention and support from Ukraine.
But while there is no proverbial smoking gun, there is considerable smoke. Russo-Iranian relations in the wake of Ukraine have dramatically improved, and both sides are sending each other weapons amounting to what U.S. officials call unprecedented levels of military support. And we know in the past that Russian-made weapons have gone to Hamas and Hezbollah. And since then, we have seen their military cooperation in Syria.
Russian ties to terrorism date back to the 1970s, and the Russian state has maintained positive ties with Hamas for years, indeed hosting it for two visits in 2022. In these conversations, Russia has reiterated its support for a Palestinian state, urged Hamas to work for Palestinian unity — which it interprets to mean Hamas should lead the Palestinians — and refused to label Hamas as a terrorist organization. Their September 2022 talks were labeled as “very important” by Moscow, with Hamas bringing what it called “new ideas” to the talks.
Planning for this operation very likely may have started around this time, given its initial sophistication. Using rockets to cover a large-scale infiltration mirrored Soviet/Russian tactics of using air or air defense cover for ground invasions, as during the Yom Kippur War in 1973.
The Russian propaganda line regarding Hamas’s attack, which comes from Putin’s office, is uniformly anti-American and anti-Israeli, blaming the West. Prior to Saturday’s strike, Putin, quite unprecedently, publicly voiced overtly antisemitic statements, suggesting a reversal of prior state policy and dismissal of concerns about antagonizing Israel. Finally, the invasion began on Oct. 7; Putin’s birthday. In this respect, we should remember that many sinister events in Russian history have occurred as if subordinates were offering them up as birthday gifts.
Some say this attack might be tied to the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur war in 1973. That was Oct. 6, and this year, Yom Kippur was Sept. 25. None of this is conclusive, but analysts should be on the lookout to see who supports Iran and through it, terrorist groups like Hamas.
We should make no mistake that these are terrorists and gangsters, given the atrocities they have perpetrated now and in the past. This war duly reminds us that the threat of terrorism is now embodied in states like Russia and Iran, as well as in groups like Hamas.
In other words, the mission must be to destroy Hamas. Doing so means checking Iran and others. Similarly, Russia must be defeated, for it too is a state whose war plan incorporates terrorism. And should it be discovered that these two wars are linked, retribution must be swift and decisive. Apologists for Putin and for Hamas cannot counter the facts of the devastating pictures now flooding the media.
Presumably, a major Hamas objective in this attack is to force acknowledgment of its legitimacy. But as we learned on 9/11, negotiation with terrorists is never a sound policy. It only encourages further blackmail and violence, whether in Ukraine or in Israel. In neither case can we accept that.
Stephen Blank, Ph.D. is a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He is a former professor of Russian national security studies and national security affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College and a former MacArthur fellow at the U.S. Army War College. Blank is an independent consultant focused on the geopolitics and geostrategy of the former Soviet Union, Russia and Eurasia.