Surging populism threatens support for Ukraine, Israel and democracy

In Europe, Putin apologist and budding autocrat Robert Fico was the lead vote-getter in the elections of Slovakia, a key NATO ally. 

Then in Washington, House GOP extremists kept Ukraine aid out of the continuing resolution and then toppled former Speaker Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). 

As if all that were not enough, the chaos ended up undermining congressional stability just when it was needed most: in support of our ally Israel as it comes under attack.

Moscow’s steady dose of disinformation, aggression, election interference (including in Slovakia) and fanning of anti-Ukraine flames are having a profound impact. We already see reports of Moscow planning to take advantage of Hamas’s attack on Israel by sowing seeds of misinformation about Ukraine’s role in Israel. No one should underestimate this deepening axis. Autocrats and terrorists in Moscow, Tehran and Gaza are at a dangerous inflection point.

Robert Fico’s populist Smer-SD party won the most votes in Slovakia’s recent election, receiving 22.9 percent of the vote. Fico’s reemergence weakens and destabilizes European democracy and allied solidarity with Ukraine at a pivotal moment for Kyiv’s counteroffensive and imminent hopes for Euro-Atlantic integration. A partner of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, Fico opposes new Slovak military aid to Ukraine, sanctions on Russia and Ukrainian European Union membership.

There are strong similarities between Fico’s party and the extreme right-wing caucus that blocked funding for Ukraine from the continuing resolution and ousted McCarthy.

Congress’s game of chicken on passing a 2024 budget highlights how growing divisions in Congress are weakening support for Ukraine and the nation’s ability to address security challenges. The takedown of McCarthy only raises more questions and the timing for electing a new Speaker, whose leadership is needed immediately for the U.S. to respond to critical economic and national security challenges in Israel and Ukraine, remains unclear, even with both Democratic and Republican nominees chosen.

These events foreshadow an even more important contest with high stakes for Ukraine and other issues: the 2024 U.S. elections. Donald Trump, the frontrunner in the Republican presidential primary, has made his admiration of Putin clear and continued to push his “America First” agenda that would isolate the U.S. in an era when autocrats such as Russian President Vladimir Putin seek to undermine democracy.  

The current funding and political impasses in Congress are also harming Israel’s national security. Key figures in the U.S. military and top diplomats, including the nominee for U.S. ambassador to Israel, are being held up in political holds and delays. A U.S. government shutdown would have been further damaging to the United States’s ability to respond to the crisis. Without the last-minute continuing resolution, for example, it is unclear whether the U.S. Navy carrier strike group that arrived recently in the Eastern Mediterranean to provide security support would have been able to undertake this critical mission. One can only imagine what might happen on Nov. 17 if a polarized Congress shuts down the government.

Despite current defense agreements with Israel, U.S. military officials are asking for additional resources and funding to support Israel’s war against Hamas, including weapons and munitions. If obstructionists in Congress refuse to support new funding for Ukraine, will they apply the same rationale to requests for additional weapons and munitions to Israel? It is no coincidence that Hamas chose to invade after months of internal political disunity in the U.S. and Israel. Right now, Congress is limited in its ability to rally to Israel’s defense. The partisan dysfunction is a sign of weakness that is undoubtedly welcomed by U.S. enemies.

Despite these worrying trends, there is hope for finding a path forward on these intertwined crises — and putting Putin back in his place. 

On the possible Slovak fault line in allied support for Ukraine, Europe offers promising precedents. For example, Italy’s right-wing government led by Giorgia Meloni has doubled down on support to Ukraine despite divisions within the governing coalition. Slovakia could follow Meloni’s example. In fact, Fico just announced the formation of a coalition government that includes Hlas, a more pro-European, pro-NATO party that may have a moderating effect on Fico’s policies including maintaining Slovakia’s foreign policy orientation toward NATO and the EU.

On the U.S. side, a strong majority of Congress still supports aid for Ukraine. In the lead-up to the Speaker election and the next funding deadline, the pragmatic, pro-democracy forces in Washington must align. A bipartisan coalition must make a clear and compelling case to Americans that aid for Ukraine is essential to U.S. national security interests. Congress should also consider funding for Ukraine at the highest level beyond President Biden’s August $24 billion request and through next year’s elections. This decision would counter Putin’s opportunism by protecting Ukraine assistance from the divisiveness of U.S. politics and the whims of Trump during an election year.

An even greater supermajority in Congress also supports Israel, and they must not let the speaker and continuing resolution dysfunction slow them down in that nation’s hour of need. Promisingly, the nomination of our new U.S. ambassador to Israel, Jack Lew, has been fast-tracked for an Oct. 18 hearing. Israel’s allies can get work done in the Senate while we await a new Speaker and action in the House. Like with Ukraine, the Biden administration is quickly providing staunch executive branch support in partnership with Congress to support Israel. Of course, neither a diplomat nor a robust military aid package alone can resolve the daunting problems Israel faces — but they are a start.

The events over the past week remind us that democracy at home and abroad is under attack, and Putin and our other enemies are paying attention and taking advantage when there is an opportunity. Whether the U.S. and its allies can turn the tide and act with speed and purpose to support Israel and Ukraine will serve as a litmus test for the health and resilience of our democracies and alliances. We must hope the test is passed.

Norman Eisen, retired ambassador to the Czech Republic, is a senior fellow in governance studies at Brookings, an expert on law, ethics and anti-corruption and a legal analyst for CNN.

Jonathan Katz is a former deputy assistant administrator for USAID who oversaw U.S. development assistance programs in Ukraine and the broader region. Over the past five years, he has served as a National Security Fellow for Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.,) a senior fellow and director of democracy initiatives for the German Marshall Fund of the United States. He is currently the senior director for the Anti-Corruption, Democracy and Security project at the Brookings Institution.