In March, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping committed to building a “wall of steel” directed toward bringing Taiwan under his control. And with that commitment, there is much to consider.
Consider that failing to successfully defend a robust democracy that has long been closely aligned with the U.S. could sound the death knell for America’s credibility as a trusted ally. Consider the loss of lives and devastation that could result from such a conflict. Consider what the loss of access to Taiwan’s factories that produce 92 percent of the most advanced chips would do to the economy. And consider how the ripple effects of the perennial appropriations drama in Washington are just one more manifestation of dysfunction and poor policies that embolden Xi.
America must do all it can to deter aggression against Taiwan. Doing so would raise doubts in Xi’s mind that hostile actions would achieve their aim and would lead him to believe that reprisals would be overwhelming. Far from raising doubts, however, policy actions in the U.S. today encourage Xi.
Timely appropriations. During the decades America spent fighting terrorism, the CCP rapidly built military capabilities to neutralize or leapfrog America’s strengths. As the U.S. military sprints to retool for great-power competition, it is being hobbled by Congress routinely failing to pass timely appropriations. Operating under a continuing resolution (CR) prevents the military from shifting priorities, starting new efforts and accelerating others to develop capabilities to deter conflict. With today’s best-case scenario being a CR, it is important to understand how it can be viewed as contributing to future conflict by slowing capabilities that if, adapted promptly, would have raised doubts in Xi’s mind.
Xi is encouraged by today’s appropriations dysfunction. What would raise doubt in his mind is promptly resolving this year’s appropriations and passing the Prevent Government Shutdowns Act to ensure timely action in future years.
Address real roots of deficit. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office’s analysis of the federal government’s budget is by turns disconcerting and revealing. When you compare the upcoming fiscal year with a prior 30-year average as a percentage of the size of the economy, the deficit has more than doubled, from 1.5 percent to 3.4 percent (an increase of 1.9 percentage points even though revenues are up 2.8 points).
What is driving the deficit? Entitlement spending is up 3.4 points and interest costs are up .7 points. Discretionary spending accounts for only 29 percent of total spending. Non-defense spending is essentially flat, while defense spending is down 1.2 percentage points. Medicare’s trust funds are forecasted to be depleted by 2031 and Social Security is expected to run short of cash by 2033.
Xi is exhilarated by today’s deficit-cutting focus that slashes defense spending in real terms, even though it is at a post-World War II low as a percentage of the U.S. economy. He is no doubt heartened by members of Congress forcing the retention of costly, outdated systems and a glut of bases to preserve jobs in their districts. America addressing the real roots of its deficits while joining Europe, Australia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan in increasing defense spending to reflect today’s perils would give Xi pause. Deterrence is the least expensive alternative, as well as the most practical.
Promoting innovation. With the Department of Defense’s research funding declining from 36 percent of global research and development in 1960 to a mere 3 percent today, America’s military is today more a consumer than a provider of technology. Deterrence requires both retaining commercial tech leadership and applying new technology to security efforts more rapidly than the competition. The U.S. is pulling back, even as the CCP keeps its foot on the accelerator in its efforts to gain tech leadership despite its sluggish economy.
Xi is emboldened by America allowing a tax incentive for spending on research and development to expire and failing to appropriate funding for the research authorized in the Chips and Science Act. Extending the research tax credit and fully funding the authorized research must be priorities.
Affirmative economic policy. In East Asia and beyond, the U.S. is relying almost exclusively on the military for deterrence. America lacks an economic policy that helps attract other nations to its side. Efforts to improve support for private investment in international infrastructure are directionally correct but remain small relative to America’s economic size, particularly when compared to Japan, Europe or the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
Xi is fortunate that the U.S. shunning expanded trade with other nations forfeits the benefits of mutually beneficial trade to the PRC and that challenges to his Belt and Road Initiative are muted. What would give him pause is America snapping out of its self-harming aversion to trade and a concerted effort to bolster private international infrastructure investment.
Valuing leadership. The current Senate logjam preventing military promotions to proceed has bipartisan origins. Both sides are calibrating their actions on political benefits, not what keeps America’s military the best fighting force in the world.
Nothing could be more encouraging to Xi than the current stalemate that keeps the optimum leadership from being on duty. The Senate should relinquish the right to approve hundreds of officer promotions if it continues to demonstrate how little it values the dedicated service of America’s fighting men and women and how it underestimates the threat to national security.
We may be witnessing “peak China,” though the PRC remains more of a peer economically, militarily and diplomatically than prior competitors. Whether peaking implies more or less danger ahead is being debated, yet the continued rapid escalation of the PRC’s military capabilities is not up for debate — it is a reality. So too is the fact that today’s authoritarian powers are more aligned than ever. America’s policy actions must shift to raise clear doubts in Xi’s mind about the benefits of aggression.
Averting conflict and sustaining American leadership is possible if policy makers recognize the gravity of the consequences for failing to deter and embrace the five actions outlined. Doing so would chart a course for sustained peace and prosperity, not just for America but for the world.
Mark R. Kennedy is a U.S. Air and Space Forces civic leader and president emeritus of the University of Colorado. He served as U.S. representative (2001-07) from Minnesota and as a presidentially appointed member of the Advisory Committee for Trade Policy and Negotiations. The views expressed here are author’s own.