Editor’s note: This piece was updated to correct the age of a presidential candidate. We regret the error.
From the vantage point of the West, despite the turmoil facing democracies, conditions are direr in Beijing and Moscow.
China’s Xi Jinping is confronted with “slings and arrows of outrageous fortune” as bad as or worse than Job’s. China’s economy, at least as President Joe Biden sees it, is “a ticking time bomb” ready to explode.
Last year, Biden called Russian President Vladimir Putin “a war criminal” guilty of committing atrocities in Ukraine. The International Criminal Court has issued warrants for Putin’s arrest accusing him of war crimes. And, by all accounts, Putin has sacrificed much of his military in the so-far unsuccessful and illegal invasion of Russia.
Yet, by turning the tables and analyzing the views from Beijing and Moscow, conditions do not seem quite so bleak. Indeed, modest or even significant optimism might be present. Consider the state of America’s politics.
Events in Washington may be far more amusing than a visit to the Moscow circus. The government faces a shutdown over what Putin and Xi must think are gnat-sized issues. That a single senator could control the promotions of hundreds of generals and admirals would be unthinkable in China and Russia.
A shutdown could have catastrophic effects on the government and economy. Government employees, including the military and law enforcement personnel, might not be paid. The same applies to employees of Congress.
Conditions in the House are chaotic. Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is being manipulated by a handful of MAGA Republicans. Some may even challenge his leadership again. It takes only one to move to vacate the chair — i.e. force a no-confidence vote. It took 15 tries for McCarthy to win the Speakership. Next time it could take more. Who would replace him? And how could this proceed if the government were shut down?
Then there are the 2024 elections. No matter how much the Chinese and Russians may try to intervene, neither will be as disruptive as letting the process play out. There are criminal charges at play. Trump has been indicted four times with 91 charges.
In the Georgia case, if tried, convicted and sentenced to prison, Trump has no chance for parole. The case is state not federal. Hence the president has no pardon authority over Georgia law.
Pardons for convicted felons in Georgia cannot be considered until five years have been served. Then pardons go to a board, not the governor. It is possible that if Trump wins, his victory speech would be delivered from jail. Or he could be tried and sentenced after he is in the White House. Suppose he refuses to comply with the law.
The spectacle of an 81-year-old running for president against a 78-year-old with these legal swords of Damocles menacing both is surely appealing to Beijing and Moscow. A government incapable of governing and still capable of doing possible irreparable damage to the country in the name of principle — namely protecting the unborn — is precisely the sort of adversary China and Russia would welcome. In these circumstances, perhaps doing nothing is the best ploy to impose the greatest damage upon America.
Regarding the war in Ukraine, these domestic events confirm Putin’s long game of winning by not losing. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Washington last week revealed fissures in lasting support for his country, especially if Trump were to win. NATO support is also thinning. Poland’s threat to withhold aid over wheat exports may be a cover for declining public support. And Poland is not alone.
As 2024 grows closer, politics in America will simultaneously become more vicious and pervasive in dominating attention. Barring a crisis, foreign policy, including Ukraine, will become less important.
The conclusions from Beijing and Moscow should be clear. Time is on our side; do no harm to change that calculus.
However attractive, intervention and meddling may be redundant. As Lenin observed, “Given enough rope, the West will hang itself.” Washington surely has enough rope.
Harlan Ullman Ph.D. is a senior advisor at Washington D.C.’s Atlantic Council and the prime author of the “shock and awe” military doctrine. His 12th book, “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large,” is available on Amazon. He can be reached on Twitter @harlankullman