Russian forces have been looting civilian homes, private businesses and even cultural institutions such as art museums during their ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But another grand-scale theft is happening in broad daylight: not by land, but by sea.
In 2022, a deal was brokered between Ukraine and Russia, with the help of Turkey and the United Nations, that allows for the export of grain from Ukraine to global markets by way of a Black Sea “Grain Corridor.” The arrangement was negotiated to mitigate the potential of a global food crisis, triggered in combination by the Russian invasion and lingering instability from the COVID-19 pandemic.
While the deal was recently extended, the agreed renewal came with a warning imposed by Moscow: any future extensions will require a reduction in the wartime Western sanctions on Russia.
The grain deal is already limited in nature, as it currently covers only the export of grain from three specified Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea. Other Ukrainian goods and raw materials cannot be traded using these marine routes. Ukrainian businesses have been resilient and are continuing to operate during wartime but have been severely limited in their export capabilities due to Russian control over the Black Sea.
Ukrainian vessels intended to carry grain exports are subject to search and inspection by Russian officials under the “Grain Corridor” framework, but Russian inspectors are sabotaging this process by deserting their posts or asking for superfluous documents to deliberately cause buildups and delays. Reports are that the Russian inspectors have refused to clear ships bound for Pivdennyi, Ukraine’s principal trading port under the agreement.
The ships waiting in line in the Bosphorus Strait, the main trading thoroughfare, numbered as high as 140 vessels in February. Fewer than half of the inspections scheduled in this area are actually being conducted each day. This violation of the Grain Deal forces Ukraine to export through Eastern European land routes, causing disruption in East Europe’s farming markets. The intended result is to drive a wedge between Ukraine and its European supporters in the war.
Prior to Russia’s invasion, over half of Ukraine’s exports went through maritime routes to which the nation now no longer has safe, fair access. The economic impact has been devastating. Ukraine’s exports have decreased by a third, triggering an estimated 30 percent drop in the nation’s GDP. Ukraine’s trading partners also suffer, as imports of goods have decreased significantly. In 2021, Ukraine imported goods worth $73 billion, and in 2022, this declined to $55 billion.
Further, Russian vessels are not subject to the same lengthy inspection processes, and this, in combination with the vast reduction in the amount of Ukrainian shipping vessels, frees up more routes and access for Russian cargo, further fueling the Russian economy and, by proxy, the Russian war machine. Russian aggression and grain deal foot-dragging has had a dramatic impact on the exports from Russia and Ukraine. Grain and oil seed exports from Russia are estimated to increase from 33 million tons in 2021-2022 to 45 million tons in 2022-2023, an increase of 36 percent. Conversely, Ukraine’s wheat exports have decreased significantly by 28 percent, falling by an estimated 5.3 million metric tons from 2021-2022 to 2022-2023.
Put simply, Russia is actively blocking ports and maritime commerce to cripple Ukraine’s economy and violate its right to free trade as a sovereign nation. Russia is using a humanitarian grain deal as a new form of “piracy,” one that extends beyond the looting of Ukraine’s assets and the pillaging of their cultural institutions.
This misuse of the Grain Deal is, in effect, a wartime blockade. Russia is imposing control over the “high seas” in violation of international law. This control is a direct threat to other Black Sea countries, especially Georgia, another nation in the Russian crosshairs.
Ukraine’s budget is currently subsidized in large part by foreign aid, with the majority coming from the E.U. and U.S. Reopening the ports and ensuring fair treatment as well as safe passage of Ukrainian ships carrying all types of cargo would decrease the reliance on foreign economic aid. Russia hopes western economic supporters will tire of providing aid as the Russian embargo bleeds the Ukrainian economy.
If free maritime navigation resumes, the economic benefits to Ukraine will be substantial. Estimates are that Ukraine could potentially generate an additional $20 billion annually. To put that into perspective, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has authorized $15 billion of aid to help Ukraine restore its financial stability.
Russia’s actions are in clear violation of both the U.N. Charter and the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which states that all countries must have free access to maritime routes. The International Maritime Organization and Ukraine’s Western allies, must hold Russia to account for violating the provisions of the U.N. Convention with these acts of piracy, and call on Russia to unblock Ukraine’s seaports and to stop its unlawful threat to maritime navigation in the Black Sea.
Restoring Ukraine’s maritime shipping sovereignty and normalizing the import/export flow is imperative. There is no question financial support to Ukraine must continue to assist in their war and rebuilding efforts, but freeing up Black Sea trade routes to freight more broadly will both bolster the immediate defense of Ukraine’s sovereignty and prime the country for a swift economic recovery once Russia is forced to cease its aggression.
James S. Gilmore III is the immediate past U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and served as the 68th governor of Virginia. He is currently president of Gilmore Global Group, LLC, where he consults on issues of public spending and taxation and on foreign policy.