China should be high on your list of worries — America’s relationship with this country of 1.4 billion people is tense.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Beijing this week for long overdue diplomatic talks. Blinken was supposed to take that trip some months ago, but a Chinese surveillance balloon got in the way. When the Biden administration announced the trip, many of us who observe foreign policy breathed a sigh of relief.
The February spy balloon incident was just one in a string of worrisome, too-close-to-call military developments between America and China, with on-again, off-again communications between the leaders seemingly not changing dangerous realities on the ground and in the air.
Last month, the U.S. accused China of flying a fighter jet in an “unnecessarily aggressive” fashion, putting one of our aircraft in danger over the South China Sea.
Just months before that incident, a U.S. military patrol aircraft reported that a Chinese jet fighter from a nearby navy ship flew within meters of a U.S. reconnaissance plane, forcing the plane to take evasive maneuvers to avoid a collision.
“Red flags” were also raised when the Chinese recently announced the release and test of a new hypersonic missile that can fly as far as Hawaii and penetrate U.S. missile defenses, posing a unique threat.
Communications and public diplomacy are a good way to lessen tensions between America and China, especially as the war in Ukraine is sapping much of the global attention. With tensions between Taiwan and China growing, both sides are watching how Ukraine plays out.
In fact, hypothetical scenarios and conflict exercises, done all the time to game out a U.S.-China conflict, have not reassuring for our side. One report showed that in a major military conflict, the U.S. faces a brutal reality because many of the parts we would need to carry out such a war are made in — you guessed it — China. Munitions, planes and ships have elements like shell casings, machine tools, fusors and propellants that are being manufactured in China and India — all of which worries Congress.
The U.S. spends far more on defense than China — about four times as much, in fact — but Beijing is looking to narrow that gap with its continued expansion of the Chinese Navy, now the largest in the world. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Beijing’s military budget reached $219 billion in 2022, more than double what it was a decade earlier (though it is still less than a third of U.S. spending during the same year).
China and America are strategic competitors. As the administration reiterated last week, “we are in competition with China, but we do not seek conflict, confrontation, or a new Cold War.”
So, what does that really mean?
Each country is engaged in an intense struggle for commercial and technological power and diplomatic prowess. China is trying to make its economy stronger than ours, but its rhetoric often obscures that fact that 2023 has not gone as well as analysts predicted.
In April, China’s economic data came in weak largely across the board. A survey of manufacturing executives, by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, found that economic activity had contracted, unexpectedly. Industrial production, which grew by 5.9 percent from the month before, did not reach the projected target of a 10.6 percent increase. And the Chinese property market, a key indicator, stalled out with falling sales of land. Consumer demand fell after the COVID pandemic.
China has seen an exodus of its millionaires in greater numbers than in the past. London-based advisory firm Henley & Partners estimates that mainland China will lose 13,500 high-net-worth individuals — that is, those with investable wealth totaling more than $1 million. In 2022, China lost 10,800 high-net-worth individuals, compared to Russia’s 8,500 and India’s 7,500.
Another area of major U.S.-China competition is around artificial intelligence, where China is making extraordinary gains. A recent U.S. government ranking of companies producing the most accurate facial recognition technology, for example, showed the top 5 were Chinese. The country has a thriving internet sector, with an enormous percentage of its population using super apps like WeChat.
Despite punitive American export rules on Chinese chip technology, imposed last year, China seems to be moving vigorously ahead with the development of supercomputers and artificial intelligence systems like ChatGPT.
America and China must coexist in a competitive world without coming to military blows. Neither side will benefit from full-scale combat over Taiwan or anything else. We have agreed-upon principles in the form of U.S.-China Joint Communiques that allow citizens on both sides of the Taiwan Strait to live peacefully. And with climate change, there is no escaping the need for the United States and China to work together so we can all breathe easier.
Even if Blinken’s visit, which some say is “performative,” did not produce a lot of concrete deliverables, it is a good step in the right direction toward a more transparent relationship with a key country. One meeting will lead to more meetings — which is exactly what we need.
Tara D. Sonenshine is the Edward R. Murrow Professor of Practice in Public Diplomacy at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.