The seeds have been sown to end the war in Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s successful U.S. visit last week marks the beginning of the end of the war in Ukraine. Ostensibly, Zelensky came to thank President Biden and members of the joint session of Congress for past and future help for his country’s ongoing fight against the Russian invasion. Privately, the two presidents likely addressed how to end the fighting, as Biden’s aides had already laid the groundwork, discussing the issue with Zelensky before his visit. 

The joint Biden-Zelensky press conference had the glow of mutual understanding between father and son. In their public and private meetings, they followed a strategy advanced by Sun Tzu over 2,500 years ago: “In war prepare for peace.” And this week, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign affairs minister, called for peace talks. 

Likewise, despite his continued attacks, Russian President Vladimir Putin said a few days ago “We are ready to negotiate with everyone involved to end the war . This was immediately amplified by Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, and Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin’s spokesperson, stating Russia’s starting position. 

West European allies too are ready to end the conflict and start to pay more attention to their deteriorating economies.

The war started when Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, to annex Ukrainian regions. Presented by Putin as a “special military operation,” and regarded as an easy win by Russia and the West, the fighting has gone badly for Russia, with over 80,000 casualties, according to the Pentagon, and 100,000, according to the New York Times.

Like the little engine that could, Ukraine has been winning many battles and is emerging a more united country, determined to become a democracy, despite many casualties, decimated infrastructure and millions of displaced people. 

The battles are being won thanks to modern weaponry and monetary and moral support from Western Europe and the United States. By one estimate, Europe and the U.S. each have given Ukraine about $50 billion. The U.S. has just allocated another $45 billion and the European Union18 billion euros.

In addition to its other devastating effects, the warfare has increased food and energy inflation significantly. Central banks in Europe and America have been raising interest rates to fight inflation, which could result in recession. Ending the conflict would lower prices and help millions in Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere with lower grocery and heating bills.

Likewise Russia is suffering from negative economic growth and a declining standard of living. Ending the war would remove all or some of the economic sanctions against it and improve growth. 

Therefore, it’s time for Russia, Ukraine, the U.S. and other Western allies to end the conflict and face resultant geopolitical realities. This must be guided by several principles, including: 

Include all involved parties. In addition to Russia and Ukraine, the conflict involves several important actors, including the U.S., Western European countries, NATO and possibly others. It is important that Russia is not made to feel besieged by the West as was Germany when World War I ended.  

Compromise. Russia and Ukraine must be willing to make concessions. They should be ready to accept less than they want, and the U.S. and Western European countries should be willing to protect the terms of the resulting agreement.

While the U.S., Western Europe, NATO and democracy itself improved their standing as a result of the conflict, Ukraine and its president have been the biggest winners, with Ukraine declared “country of the year” by The Economist and Zelensky “person of the year” by Time Magazine. As a result, one might expect more concessions from Russia.

Mutual respect for all parties. Negotiating the war’s end must be conducted with delicacy and respect for Ukraine and Russia, especially for Putin, whose reputation in Russia and the world has diminished greatly, and whose totalitarian grasp on his country has weakened.

For him this isn’t only a matter of saving face; it’s also a matter of salvaging his legacy. Without this, Putin could continue fighting indefinitely and possibly use nuclear weapons. 

Recognition of territorial integrity. Russia, the aggressor, must guarantee the integrity of territories it acknowledges to be Ukrainian or face serious consequences.

Security assurance. Such a clause is triggered when it is broken and action is taken to restore the terms of the accord. Security assurance would be especially important to Ukraine. The U.S. and Western Europe must be willing to enforce it. 

It should be emphasized that ending this war does not mean achieving peace. Ending it would require ongoing multi-party meetings and discussions before negotiations even begin. And once it ends, the face of that region will change.

While the Ukraine war continues to rage, the seeds to end it have already been sown. Will those seeds become fecund by spring or summer?

Avraham Shama is the former dean of the College of Business at the University of Texas, The Pan-American. He is professor emeritus at the Anderson School of Management of the University of New Mexico. His book on Perestroika was published by Praeger Publishing, and his new book, “Cyberwars: David Knight Goes to Moscow,” was recently published by 3rd Coast Books.