As Russia’s war fails, domestic turmoil is intensifying

Military failure in Ukraine is undermining the stability of the Russian state. The Kremlin has tried to disguise its war losses to prevent negative domestic reactions, but the reality of failure is becoming increasingly obvious, most recently in the retreat from Kherson soon after the region was constitutionally incorporated in the Russian Federation. Russia’s convulsions are evident in high-level criticisms of state policy, purges in the military, political, and economic structures, conflicts within the security institutions, resistance to mobilization and mounting regional unrest.

Russia’ s military lost the battles for Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson, and continues to lose ground in other occupied territories. Its war losses are enormous, with a conservative estimate of over 80,000 dead, incapacitated or captured, together with several thousand destroyed or captured aircraft, tanks and other heavy equipment. These staggering losses have seriously depleted military capabilities and decimated elite units.

Internal Russian criticisms over the planning and conduct of the war have mushroomed despite strict state censorship. The Military Review website, which is close to the Russian Ministry of Defense, has published devastating attacks on  the condition of Russia’s armed forces. Even senior former military commanders have lambasted the operation. General Leonid Ivachov, a prestigious figure in the Soviet General Staff, has denounced the policy of deploying various private formations alongside the regular army. Ivashov even stated that “Russia will cease to exist” if it continues the war by becoming isolated and destitute.

Igor Girkin, the former “minister of defense” of the Moscow-created Donetsk People’s Republic, has asserted that a classic revolutionary situation is brewing in. Russia. Moscow is waging an increasingly unpopular imperialist war, the battle front is collapsing and the country’s leaders are disconnected from reality. According to Girkin, Putin is kept in power to prevent elite battles that would precipitate Russia’s disintegration. Such criticisms have been amplified by hardline military bloggers who openly attack Russian commanders for their mediocrity and cowardice.

There is frequent reshuffling of the Russian command structure and a constant purge of senior officers blamed for a poorly designed war strategy. Alongside the military purges, there has been a spate of suspicious deaths among oligarchs and critics of the Kremlin. At least a dozen Russian oligarchs have died in unexplained circumstances, leading to speculation about whether they were opposed to the war and willing to support alternative leaders or whether they committed suicide because of economic losses due to international sanctions. They have included Ravil Maganov, chairman of the board of Russia’s largest private oil company Lukoil, one of a few Russian companies to criticize the invasion of Ukraine.

Disputes between security institutions have mushroomed. Yevgeniy Prigozhin, who controls the Wagner paramilitary groups, has lambasted Russia’s military commanders and Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. Wagner has sustained significant losses in Ukraine and has recruited convicts in Russian prisons in return for amnesty. Chechen leader and Putin loyalist Ramzan Kadyrov has also openly attacked Russia’s military leaders for incompetence and lack of commitment. Kadyrov’s and Prigozhin’s critiques indicate a deepening fragmentation among the pro-war leaders. Firefights between the regular military and private contractors have also erupted. Amid massive losses, logistical shortages and retreats, such internal conflicts can precipitate outright mutinies.

Russia’s first mass mobilization since World War II has provoked widespread discontent. Almost 1 million men fled the country to avoid mobilization, and several thousand were arrested at anti-war protests in more than 50 cities. Most of the protests were held in non-Russian areas and in poorer Russian regions. The largest flash points were recorded in the republics of Dagestan, Buryatia and Sakha. Those who were enlisted have received minimal training, inadequate weapons and little food or medical attention, and are led by incompetent commanders. Many have tried to desert and faced detention or execution. The war will have a devastating effect on Russia’s regions whose funds are dwindling to pay for mobilization. The disproportionate mobilization and deaths of non-Russians is aggravating a litany of grievances in the North Caucasus and other national republics.

The Moscow-based opposition and exiled democrats are incapable of transforming an empire into a democratic state. Their insistence on preserving Russia in its current borders is viewed with increasing suspicion among non-Russians and regionalists. This leaves the terrain open for alternative voices, particularly for nations and regions demanding independence, including the recently established Free Nations of Post-Russia. By assembling émigré activists from several nations and regions, including the Middle Volga, Siberia, the North Caucasus and Russia’s Northwest, they are giving voice to long-suppressed aspirations for liberation.

Vitriolic Kremlin attacks on such initiatives underscore its fears of growing challenges to Moscow’s rule as Russia faces a grueling winter of defeat in Ukraine.

Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His new book, “Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture,” has just been published.