The US-Saudi ties are more critical than Biden’s spat with the crown prince
The personal feud between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, who may become king for the next 50 years, and President Joe Biden, uprooting 80 years of cooperation between the countries, threatens to undermine the interests of both nations during a time of fragile international relations.
For many years, the formula was Saudi oil for American security, a transactional relationship that benefited both parties. It provided America with cheap fossil fuels while protecting the conservative kingdom from predators. The relationship has had many ups and downs, particularly the 9/11 attacks and the 1970s oil embargo in response to American support for Israel after the 1973 Yom Kippur war.
My recent visit to the kingdom of Saudi Arabia was an attempt to see the world through their eyes, to present an American perspective and, most importantly, to make recommendations about how we might heal the rift. Shared interests, albeit with limited shared values, require finding a path forward.
During meetings in Saudi Arabia, one of the most frequent narratives I heard from Saudi officials was that the relationship was damaged during President Trump’s tenure. America did nothing in response to the Iranian drone and missile attacks on Saudi oil facilities in 2019. It then removed the Patriot anti-missile system from Saudi Arabia while Iranian-backed Houthis fired missiles into the kingdom. It seemed a clear message to the Saudi leadership that the oil for security arrangement was no longer in place.
When President Biden came into office — and before that, when he was running for office — he made a point of disparaging the crown prince for his role in the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Everyone I met in Saudi Arabia condemned Khashoggi’s assassination, but many Saudis believe this pales in comparison to Iran’s participation in the genocide of hundreds of thousands in Syria — this being only one example of the significant Iranian atrocities to which the U.S. has not responded. They ask why Iran’s human rights issues do not merit the attention or threats that Biden has thrown toward the Saudis. They see American diplomats treating Iranian nuclear negotiators with respect but their prince as a pariah. The Saudis are proud and independent, and this disrespect is keenly felt.
Personal relationships among leaders are an essential component of international affairs. In the Saudi context, presidents and kings have formed strong bonds based on mutual interest, despite their differences. Biden went out of his way during his presidential campaign to make a show of calling for the ostracization of the Saudi kingdom.
A stable U.S.-Saudi relationship with some U.S. influence on the energy market is needed for a stable world economic order as it transitions over the next 50 years from fossil fuels to greater use of greener alternatives. The Saudis are the only country with excess oil capacity that can dramatically affect energy prices at a moment’s notice. In the past, they have done this against the will of other OPEC members in service to their alliance with the U.S. Wishful thinking will not eliminate overnight the demand for fossil fuels and the byproducts of their refinement.
Saudi Arabia’s crown prince is in his early years of power. He has shown signs of moderation on many fronts that were never thought possible, especially regarding rapprochement with the Jewish state and liberalization within Saudi society.
Meanwhile, what has happened? The accepted narrative is that Mohammed bin Salman, in response to being disrespected, has retaliated and tried to deliberately undermine President Biden’s midterm elections by not acquiescing to Biden’s demand that Saudi Arabia use its excess capacity to increase oil production during a time of high inflation and gas prices. The Saudi response, which the Biden administration did not believe, was that this was a technical issue and the lowering of oil production was perhaps lousy timing but the proper reaction to a world about to approach a global recession. Saudi officials point out that oil prices have not gone up since the 2 million barrels a day decrease in production. However, in a world with few coincidences, it is hard to believe the timing was not deliberate.
The American foreign policy narrative in 2022 has been consumed with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Vladimir Putin’s dreadful punishment of the Ukrainian people. Since Russia will benefit economically from an increase in oil prices, this means in a binary world, the decrease in Saudi oil flow will benefit Putin. Much less acknowledged is that the Saudi prince needs high oil prices to fund his ambitious Vision 2030 plan to reshape the Saudi economy from one entirely dependent on fossil fuels.
What is the way forward? The crown prince should publicly state that he will be proactive regarding increased oil production — even at the risk of lowering oil prices — for the sake of people facing a frigid winter with potentially high energy costs. Higher costs seem almost inevitable because the European Union will be capping the importation of Russian fossil fuels. The Saudi prince also should make some gesture toward reconciliation with Israel, furthering the Abraham Accords’ initiation of active peaceful relationships in the region.
As for Biden, he should reaffirm America’s commitment to Saudi security. The president could offer a “quid pro quo” if he believes the Iran nuclear deal is dead. In exchange for ending discussions with Iran on a nuclear deal, the Saudis may promise to increase oil production for the foreseeable future. This is a bargain the Saudis likely would accept, because they see Iran as an existential threat. Unfortunately, it may well be that the president, after the midterm elections, will continue to chase after Iran’s Supreme Leader to make a deal.
The U.S.-Saudi relationship has been a keystone in the interest of both nations, and it’s up to the leader of both to secure it once again.
Dr. Eric R. Mandel is the director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political Information Network. He regularly briefs members of Congress and their foreign policy aides. He is the senior security editor for the Jerusalem Report. Follow him on Twitter @MepinOrg.