Escaping the ‘20 years to Mars’ trap

These are exciting times for space exploration. We have the James Webb Space Telescope operating flawlessly, looking deeper into the universe than we have ever seen before. We have the Perseverance Mars rover and Mars helicopter, Ingenuity, continuing to send back extraordinary images and data from Mars. We have new launch vehicles to take astronauts to low Earth orbit. We also have the Artemis 1 mission awaiting launch in the next few weeks from Cape Canaveral, when the Space Launch System (SLS) will send an uncrewed Orion spacecraft on a test flight into orbit around the Moon. And SpaceX plans to conduct an orbital test flight of its Starship vehicle sometime this year as well. In addition, all kinds of commercial activity and investment in space is expanding with extraordinary speed and exponentially.

With all of these advances over the past few years, a question about our future in space, one that we have been asking ourselves for decades, remains: When will humans finally set foot on Mars?

Human missions to Mars have been a widely accepted goal for over 50 years, and have been an “official” policy objective of the United States government since 2004. More recently, commercial entities such as SpaceX, Lockheed Martin and others have presented plans to establish a permanent human presence on Mars. But the “official” timeline for achieving this goal never seems to get any closer in time, perpetually remaining “20 years” into the future.

Unquestionably, there have been positive developments that could potentially free us from this 20-year “trap.” For example, the recently enacted NASA Authorization Act of 2022 not only reiterated our lunar and Martian ambitions, but also called for the formation of a Moon to Mars Program Office within NASA to help coordinate and expedite all that is needed to accomplish this goal.

In addition, earlier this summer NASA released objectives to help define the path that will return us to the Moon and then send humans to Mars. These objectives include building lunar surface infrastructure, employing lunar in-situ resource utilization (ISRU), developing fission surface power, updating communications assets, expanding entry descent and landing capabilities, advancing crew health and furthering other elements and capabilities necessary to a human presence on another planetary body.

But the most recent official timeline to send humans to Mars is “no later than 2040,” seven years later than the 2033 goal that Congress proposed a few years ago and almost 20 years in the future, thereby “kicking the can down the road,” as the saying goes. We believe that doing so removes the urgency that is needed to achieve a sustainable presence on Mars.  

Some people may ask, “Why the rush?” But the question that we should instead be asking is, “Why the endless delays?” We have been hoping to send humans to Mars for over 50 years. But our lack of urgency has condemned Mars to always be the “horizon goal,” one that is perpetually 20 years in the future so is never reached.

We need to break out of what we perceive to be a trap. We need to take the necessary steps, including accepting a certain level of risk, to ensure that humans do get back to the Moon by 2025, and are on the surface of Mars no more than 10 years later.

This includes conducting inspiring and productive precursor missions that will prove out new technology, reduce risk and keep the public and policymakers engaged. Indeed, a rare and special launch opportunity for a human mission to Mars exists 11 years from now, in 2033. That year, as a result of favorable planetary alignments that occur only every 15 years, humans can transit to Mars faster and with less mass than during ordinary launch windows to Mars.

Even if we are not yet ready to land, we should conduct a human orbital or flyby mission then that would prove out many of the systems in the environment of an Earth to Mars transit, and then safely land women and men on the surface of Mars at the next launch window two years later.

Which brings us to another question, “Why do it at all?” There are dozens of compelling reasons to send humans to Mars. But perhaps the two most important reasons lie in the very nature of space exploration itself. Space exploration requires extraordinary technical, scientific and educational advancements, all of which immensely benefit our country economically and improve life on Earth.

In addition, in these very complicated times, space exploration is one of only a handful of issues that has strong bipartisan and public support. It also inspires and provides the opportunity for the U.S. to lead other nations in a peaceful endeavor for the benefit of all humankind. Let us use our space program to return humans to the Moon and then send them to Mars to help unite our nation as well as the world and hopefully help to heal our seemingly insurmountable divisions.

We should embrace a safe yet bold and accelerated timeline to send humans to Mars in the early to mid-2030s. With new and imaginative partnerships between government, commercial industry and international partners, we will energize the country and the world, and stimulate innovations and advancements that will benefit all of humanity.

Chris Carberry is CEO of Explore Mars, Inc. and the author of “Alcohol in Space.” Rick Zucker is vice president, policy, of Explore Mars, Inc.