Will Putin’s energy embargo be his swan song?

Russian President Vladimir Putin made a fatal mistake when he started an energy embargo against Western European countries. It will cost him big. He will lose the war in Ukraine, set back Russia’s standing in the world long after he is gone, unite the West and improve the reputation of President Biden and the free world. 

Once Putin’s failure becomes evident, he will turn his attention to the U.S. to exact revenge. The U.S. better be prepared for what may happen. 

Putin likely thought that shutting off Russia’s gas flow to Western European countries would choke their economies, cause public unrest and force them to withdraw their support for Ukraine, thus giving him a better chance of winning the war. But so far the European Union continues to express steadfast support, despite the high economic and social costs. 

All Putin expressly wanted when he initiated his “special military operation” in February was for Ukraine to agree not to seek NATO membership, as well as to annex or “liberate” the Donbas region as he did Crimea in 2014, without forceful objections from the West. He likely did not realize that the embargo would instead unite the West and put him and his country on an irreversible losing streak.

In the early days of the invasion, Putin won a large territory in the Donbas. As a result, Putin’s appetite grew, and his full plan surfaced. He wanted to capture the whole country and install a puppet government. Europe and the U.S., too, expected Ukraine to fall quickly, and Biden offered Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a safe heaven. 

Few expected what happened next.

The Russian invasion galvanized the Ukrainian people, their army and president to fight ferociously against the Russian forces, thwart them and at times win battles. Favorable public opinion followed. Western Europe and the U.S. realized that helping Ukraine helps their democratic way of life and wards off the Russian threats to their own countries.

The invasion also motivated Sweden and Finland to join NATO — precisely what Putin did not want Ukraine to do. As a result, the West poured money, arms and humanitarian assistance into Ukraine. But Putin failed to realize this and refrain from starting his energy embargo.

Now Putin is a wounded warrior who could act irrationally, as may be telegraphed by his occupation of Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine. 

The West must handle Putin both firmly and delicately. On the one hand, it must treat Putin firmly, but not too firmly as to drive him to use nuclear weapons. On the other hand, it must treat him with consideration so he can declare his “special military mission” a success. 

Such a response may require difficult compromises on the part of Ukraine, possibly giving some of the Donbas region to Russian influence. Surely, no one (not even Zelensky) expects the West to pay very high prices for energy, suffer economic contractions and finance the war for ever. 

Even with concessions, the net result of the embargo is a wounded Putin, a diminished Russian Federation, a more united Western European front with more resources allocated to energy independence and national defense and an enhanced standing of the U.S. as the leader of the free world, ready to handle threats to democracy in other places, including perhaps Taiwan.  

As the Ukrainian war subsides, Putin will intensify his attacks on the U.S. because he believes it is responsible for his losses. Since his military conventional forces are weak and ill-equipped, and the use of nuclear weapons is an unlikely option, he will invade with his cyber soldiers, using modern cyber technologies that Russia has been developing since Putin ascended to the presidency in 2000.

The U.S. must be ready for Putin’s cyberattacks against the American political, economic and social systems, this time on a much bigger scale than in the past. Better yet, the U.S. should be prepared to strike Russia back hard and fast, for this seems to be the only language Putin understands. The U.S. must not lose this new cold war. 

Avraham Shama is the former dean of the College of Business at the University of Texas, The Pan-American. He is professor emeritus at the Anderson School of Management at the University of New Mexico. His new book, “Cyberwars: David Knight Goes to Moscow,” was recently published by 3rd Coast Books.