Think China is aggressive now? Wait until after the 20th Party Congress

Major events are rare in the humdrum of international politics. But when they do occur, much like geology they can shift the ground under your feet, dramatically and suddenly, changing the global landscape. This year will bring the equivalent of a tectonic shift in China’s politics when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) holds its 20th Party Congress, beginning Oct. 16. This will be the most significant Party Congress in many decades, for three reasons.

First, despite serious contention with CCP leadership, and major economic and social problems in China, Chinese President Xi Jinping remains its ultimate authority and in control of the Party. His travel to the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan this month is notable because he will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Samarkand at the annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, thus signaling their alliance remains strong. Xi’s support for Putin has been unwavering since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

This trip will be the first time Xi has left China since before the COVID-19 pandemic and it may be the harbinger of more frequent international travel. He is scheduled to visit Bali in November for the G20 Summit, and possibly Thailand as well. The travel plans indicate that Xi is optimistic about his position of power and his ability to advance China’s influence abroad, and act as a signal to other Party leaders and the Chinese people that their leader is active on the global stage.

Second, if Xi wins a third term as Party leader and chairman of the Central Military Commission, as expected, it will break precedent for the modern Party leaders after Deng Xiaoping. This is a bold and meaningful step, revealing that Xi sees himself as superior to Deng, and not just Mao Zedong’s equal but perhaps even greater than the “Great Helmsman.” Like Mao, he plans to impose “Xi Jinping Thought” on the Party and the Chinese people, as the CCP Politburo’s statement announced, and to implement measures such as the Five-Sphere Integrated Plan and the Four-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy. This bodes ill for the possibility of any relief for Chinese people who suffer under Xi’s tyrannical rule.  

In Xi’s third and potentially fourth terms, the CCP wants to move toward achieving its second 100-year goal of building a modern socialist power by 2049, the 100th year of the party-state’s founding. Before that, it must modernize its army by 2027, the 100th year of the People’s Liberation Army’s founding. Meanwhile, the CCP faces a critical point in time when the end of its term is near. Xi will push to fortify his governance in the name of perfecting the efficiency and effectiveness of the Chinese communist system by restructuring the giant power pyramid under the so-called the “fifth modernization,” which enables him to control the Party and state in a more refined, sophisticated, comprehensive and diversified way.

There is every indication that Xi intends to remain the CCP’s ruler until he dies, is overthrown, or becomes unable to rule for some reason. At 69, he could remain China’s leader for the better part of the next two decades. That means many future U.S. presidents will encounter his rule. Thus, understanding his motivations and strategic aims — to see the People’s Republic of China as the world’s hegemon — and the seriousness with which Xi is determined to achieve his goals is of paramount importance for the Biden administration and its successors.

Third, Xi will become more aggressive and belligerent after the conclusion of the Party Congress — ideologically, diplomatically and militarily. While he will remain watchful of real or imagined opposition, and move to crush it, after the Party Congress he will have his CCP house in order, so to speak. The Party — and indeed, the world — will witness a new beginning in Xi’s leadership. He will be unfettered to achieve his aims. While Xi already has boldly advanced China’s interests against the U.S. and its allies, what has occurred since he came to power in 2012 until now may be a period of moderation compared with what follows this fall’s Party Congress. Xi will be more determined than ever to advance his agenda, including forcing the U.S. from its position of leadership and reshaping global politics.

Xi has made it clear that he will use the 20th Congress to mobilize the entire Party and the Chinese people to vigorously promote the building of “a community of common destiny for mankind,” his euphemism for China’s global domination. Xi’s foreign policy will increase its hostility against the United States; he has made it no secret he perceives the U.S. as the biggest obstacle to the CCP’s strategic goal of expanding its core interests. He will increase the size and preparedness of China’s military in anticipation of winning China’s global domination. At the same time, Beijing will continue to deceive the United States for a longer period of strategic opportunity; the CCP is still not strong enough for a showdown with the U.S.

As Beijing’s “wolf warrior” diplomacy turns more aggressive, the West must anticipate that Xi will seek to conquer Taiwan. Equally important, Washington must expect that the intensity of Xi’s post-Congress belligerence will be greater than it has witnessed, and his ambition will be directed against the U.S. and its allies. The Biden administration likely is unprepared for this.  But an intellectual shift must be made now, and be followed immediately by tangible measures to deter Communist China’s aggression.

Lianchao Han is vice president of Citizen Power Initiatives for China. After the Tiananmen Square Massacre in 1989, he was one of the founders of the Independent Federation of Chinese Students and Scholars. He worked in the U.S. Senate for 12 years, as legislative counsel and policy director for three senators. Bradley A. Thayer is director of China policy at the Center for Security Policy.  They are the co-authors of “Understanding the China Threat.”