England’s ‘Mini-Trump’ isn’t gone yet — and will leave his successor a ‘poisoned chalice’

Great Britain’s Mini-Trump has left the stage. Except he hasn’t, not quite yet. The UK’s political melodrama has potentially still a few months to run, as Boris Johnson clings to office even as he struggles to fill all the vacant ministerial posts and everyone around him jockeys for the succession.

In a number of ways, Johnson has followed the playbook of America’s 45^th President. Both men’s reliance on bombast, wilful disregard of the rules and an inability to tell fact from fiction have been their hallmarks.

The manner of their defenestration has, of course, fundamental differences — the prime minister would not resort to sending in an armed mob to storm Parliament. But in other areas, some disconcerting similarities can be drawn. Both Johnson and Trump believed they had been betrayed; that they were entitled to power; that their records would stand up to historical scrutiny, and that the countries would collapse without them.

Bathos and self-delusion make for a toxic combination.

In Brussels and other European capitals, relief is the overarching response. European leaders were not cracking open the champagne at the news of Johnson’s demise, but there is a hope that whoever takes over might behave a little better and, at the very least, abide by the rule of law.

There is no expectation of major policy changes on a number of fronts. Even the leader of the opposition Labour party is ruling out not just an application to re-join the European Union, but also participation in the single market or the customs union. There is scope for improvement on a number of specific fronts, such as formalization of security cooperation, plus a deal on science partnerships. But that pretty much is that.

The biggest source of acrimony is the UK government’s attempts to circumvent the Northern Ireland protocol — part of the original Brexit deal they signed, thereby imperiling security across Ireland. That legislation is going through parliament. Johnson will flamboyantly embrace it as a ‘wedge’ issue, defining it as ‘plucky’ Britain taking on the world. Any Conservative leadership candidate who speaks against it will be taking a huge risk with party members, who — after Parliament whittles down the list of a dozen or so candidates to two — will be choosing between the final two candidates for Johnson’s replacement by September. Europe-bashing wins votes.

Which is where the Biden administration comes in — or should come in. Washington has always enjoyed considerable leverage over London, at times using it quietly, at others even more discreetly. On the vexed question of the protocol, Washington has nudged behind the scenes, but been summarily ignored. It was no surprise that President Biden’s official response to the dramatic events in London was to reaffirm the so-called “special relationship,” without mentioning Johnson at all by name.

Among governments around the world, the biggest cause for complaint in recent years has been the loss of pragmatism and dependability, two traits previously seen as synonymous with the UK. It will take time for ministers to convince their counterparts that they can trust the Brits again. British diplomats, meanwhile, barely concealed the distress at having to represent a government at its most erratic. They would swap tales with American counterparts of the Trump years.

In one area, the UK’s stock has risen over the past six months. Johnson’s strong military and political support for Ukraine has set him apart from his more equivocating French and German counterparts, locating Britain once again at the heart of Transatlantic security in the face of external threats.

The long-standing role of London as the centre of global money laundering (Johnson personally enjoyed the company of wealthy Russians, and his party benefited from their largesse) is now conveniently forgotten as attention is focused on Vladimir Putin’s military aggression. Britain’s hard line towards Moscow is domestically popular and will not change. Expect the new prime minister to make an early visit to Kyiv to demonstrate unwavering support for Volodymyr Zelensky.

Similarly, the tougher approach to China and the increased focus on the so-called Indo-Pacific tilt should be seen as long-term strategies. The same applies to the other major international challenges — climate, energy, immigration and public health.

Johnson was the master of the grand gesture. He didn’t do detail. As a result, he leaves his successor a long line of unresolved problems.

His so-called ‘levelling up’ agenda is confined to rhetoric. Decades of underinvestment in poorer parts of the country have failed to be addressed. The health service is struggling to cope. With inflation surging, workers striking and labor shortages leading to business cutbacks, the mood is sour.

If a nation’s standing in the world is measured in large part by its economic performance, the next prime minister has been handed a poisoned chalice. According to the OECD, Britain is facing the second-lowest growth rates among developed nations. Its only consolation is that the country one notch lower is Russia.

John Kampfner is executive director of the UK in the World programme at Chatham House in London.