Abe brought stability and optimism to Japan, but his legacy remains unfinished

Shortly after Shinzo Abe began his second term as Prime Minister of Japan, he visited the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington to give a speech. At the beginning of the speech, which Abe delivered in English, the Prime Minister said his “core message” was “I am back, and so shall Japan be.” Tragically, that confidently optimistic voice, which inspired both Japan and the world, was forever silenced by an assassin’s bullet on Friday morning.

Looking back on Abe’s CSIS speech and his address about two years later to a joint session of Congress, what is striking is both how much he accomplished and how much is still left undone. When Mr. Abe began his second term as Prime Minister in December of 2012, Japan had witnessed a revolving door of leaders. Abe was himself one six different prime ministers to lead Japan after the charismatic Junichiro Koizumi left office in 2006. Few would have predicted back in 2012, when Mr. Abe was again elected as Japan’s leader, that he would become Japan’s longest serving prime minister.

While Abe was able to bring needed stability to Japan’s government, particularly after the devastating earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster that had devastated Japan in March of 2011, his desire to reinvigorate the Japanese economy through “Abenomics” — a mix of fiscal stimulus measures and structural reforms — failed to fully achieve its goals. Nevertheless, Abe’s vision of Japan as a major player on the world stage was significantly advanced during his years in office. He was a consistent voice for a “free and open Indo-Pacific region,” (FOIP) a concept that he is credited with formulating back in 2015. This led Abe to work closely with the U.S., India, and Australia, in a grouping that has become known as “the Quad.”

In addition to strengthening alliances, Abe understood that concepts such as the FOIP could only be achieved if the world’s nations agreed to a “rules-based international order.” Abe was a tireless advocate for international agreements. This was never more evident than when the U.S. withdrew from the trade agreement known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). While many expected the deal to fall apart without the U.S., Abe played a key role in bringing the remaining 11 nations together to form what is now called the Comprehensive and Progressive Tran-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

It is not surprising that Abe was a successful political leader. Like many Japanese prime ministers, he was raised in a political family. His father, Shintaro Abe, served in various high positions in the Japanese government, including as foreign minister, and was often mentioned as possible candidate for prime minister. Abe’s maternal grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, did serve as prime minister from 1957 until forced from office in 1960. Kishi was a source of both inspiration for Abe, and consternation to those who had been the victims of Japanese aggression during World War II. Kishi had served in the Japanese cabinet during World War II, and before returning to politics had been detained by the U.S. for three years as a possible war criminal. These links to Japan’s past wrongs were highlighted when, for example, Abe in 2013 visited the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, where Japan’s war dead are enshrined. This visit predictably provoked rebukes from China, South Korea, and to a lesser degree, the United States. It is worth noting that Abe never returned to Yasukuni during the remainder of his term in office.

What Abe never abandoned, however, was his desire to have Japan throw off its wartime past to the degree necessary to become a “normal country.” Significantly, this meant for Abe revising Japan’s pacifist constitution. Under Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, put in place by the U.S. after World War II, Japan agreed to “forever renounce war as a sovereign right,” and consequently to not maintain, “land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential.”

Despite these prohibitions, Japan maintains a self-defense force (JSDF) that ranks among the top five most powerful militaries in the world. Given the rising military strength of China, and the increasing nuclear threats from North Korea, Abe felt strongly that Japan’s military capabilities needed to increase beyond the limits imposed by the Japanese Constitution, despite the willingness of the Japanese government to interpret these restrictions very liberally.

Abe was shot while campaigning for one of his Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) candidates in the Japanese House of Councillors election scheduled to take place on Sunday.

One of the issues in the election is constitutional revision. Proposals to amend the Constitution must receive the support of two-thirds of both houses of the Japanese Diet to be sent on to the Japanese people for approval.

It is possible that Abe’s shocking death may cause voters to support LDP candidates, who were already expected to do well on Sunday. If the LDP, along with other pro-revision parties, is able to secure enough seats to hold a two-thirds majority after Sunday’s election, there might be renewed support to honor the late prime minister’s legacy by pushing forward the constitutional reforms that he desired.

Paul Sracic is a professor of politics & international relations and director of the Rigelhaupt Pre-Law Center at Youngstown State University. He was twice named a Fulbright Scholar to Japan and was part of the Prime Minister’s Office Visiting Experts Program in 2012. Follow him on Twitter @pasracic