A tough agenda: Biden and AMLO to talk migration, crime, the economy

When Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador announced that he would not attend the Summit of the Americas hosted by the U.S. in June because Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua were not invited, AMLO (as he is known) quickly added that he would soon visit President Biden in Washington — and indeed, the two will meet on Tuesday.

Their meeting underscores how vital good relations are for both countries, despite sometimes significant policy differences. Too much is at stake to not find ways to cooperate on key issues. The two leaders’ July 12 conversations will signal how well their administrations can manage a challenging bilateral agenda.  

Topping that agenda is managing still-growing migration flows at the U.S.-Mexico border; tackling cross-border smuggling of drugs, people and arms; facilitating trade of $1 million a minute; and modernizing the border to enable commerce and security. These tasks are complicated by lingering effects of the pandemic, such as supply chain disruptions, and by high inflation and rising energy and food prices sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Concerns are growing over the deterioration of democracy and human rights in Mexico, fueled by AMLO’s condemnation of opponents and of Mexico’s institutional checks and balances. His refusal to attend the summit in Los Angeles without Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua sparked congressional criticism. However, AMLO did send his foreign minister, Marcel Ebrard, to participate in the summit. Ebrard joined Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly in issuing a joint statement about cooperating on issues.

AMLO’s effort to blunt criticism of his absence from the summit and Biden’s willingness to rapidly arrange his visit to Washington underscore how vital bilateral relations are, regardless of philosophical differences over how to treat non-democracies in the Americas. 

Almost 80 percent of Mexico’s exports come to the U.S. Those exports accounted for most of Mexico’s economic growth over the past year, pulling the country out of its pandemic recession.  That and the record remittances sent back home by Mexicans in the U.S. highlight how fundamental the economic ties are.

Biden knows the importance of Mexico from his work as vice president in the Obama administration when he oversaw relations with Mexico and Central America, which included trying to manage surging migration flows and cross-border crime. Cooperation on these problems and border management had deteriorated when Biden took office in 2021. 

Illegal smuggling of opioids from Mexico was the leading source of a record 106,000 U.S. drug overdose deaths. The persistent flows of illegal migrants into the U.S. have been highlighted by the recent tragic deaths in Texas from a smuggling operation gone bad. An increasing number of Mexicans are crossing the border irregularly. Republicans are sharply critical of the Biden administration’s border migration policies, so Mexico must become a better partner if the Biden administration is to improve migration management.

Biden and his team set out quickly to mend relations with Mexico and reestablish mechanisms to promote cooperation and problem solving. Simultaneously, trade ministers worked to speed the implementation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

By the USMCA’s second anniversary, trade across North America had surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Commerce with Mexico supports some 5 million U.S. jobs. There is good cooperation in many areas but still much work to do to achieve the agreement’s potential. Important U.S.-Mexico trade problems need solutions, including concerns about Mexican policies related to energy, biotech agriculture, and the treatment of U.S. companies. The U.S. is encouraging solutions for energy disputes and urging climate-friendly policies. More broadly, many argue that Mexico is discouraging what could be a wave of “nearshoring” investment.  

Regarding crime, the U.S. and Mexico reached agreement on objectives for cooperation, but there have not been clear results, particularly in reducing deadly fentanyl flows from Mexico. Organized criminal groups remain deeply ensconced. Analysts express skepticism about the Mexican government’s security policies, and U.S. travel advisories highlight insecure areas. Concerns about human rights and democracy in Mexico are growing, but AMLO’s sharp rebukes of criticisms make it tricky for Biden to raise those issues.

A good outcome from their conversations would include clear signals of a detailed plan to manage migrant flows. This would include effective steps to adjust to the elimination of the “Remain in Mexico” program, the expected end of expulsions justified by the pandemic, and cracking down on migrant smuggling. It also would include serious commitment to building regional cooperation, as agreed at the Summit of the Americas.

On crime, the two leaders must make clear that they want results that save lives on both sides of the border and overcome mistrust that has developed. Mexico needs to adjust its laws and practices that severely limit cooperation on investigations. And a clear commitment to build a 21st century border with technology to reduce illicit trafficking would be valuable.

On economic issues, we can hope for specific commitments to try to manage inflation, resolve the tough USMCA differences quickly, and demonstrate solid progress in cooperation across North America. 

Earl Anthony Wayne, a former U.S. ambassador to Mexico and Assistant Secretary of State for Economic and Business Affairs, is board co-chair of the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute and a Distinguished Diplomat at American University’s School of International Service. Follow him on Twitter @EAnthonyWayne.