Trump’s attempt to remove international students might hurt his bottom line

Forget for a moment the sheer cruelty of stripping international students of their visas once their colleges and universities shift to remote instruction. Forget the anti-immigrant animus that seems to motivate sending home some of the smartest students in the world. 

Consider instead the most sympathetic rationale for the Trump administration’s new rule on student visas: the president wants students back on campuses this fall, he wants life and the U.S. economy to return to normal in the hopes of energizing his flagging reelection effort.

Removing international students is not going to accomplish those goals.

The 1.1 million international college students across the nation contributed nearly $41 billion to the U.S. economy and supported nearly 460,000 jobs during the 2018-2019 school year, according to the Association of International Educators. For universities in red states and blue, these students represent a key source of revenue, often paying full tuition rates rather than the discounted prices other students receive.

A full third of students at Fort Hays State University in Kansas come from outside the country, as do 28 percent of those at the Florida Institute of Technology and 16 percent at Oklahoma’s University of Tulsa, according to an analysis by U.S. News. At Georgetown University, where we’re affiliated, it’s 14 percent.

Losing these students will bring deeper cuts to institutions already bleeding red from the pandemic. Many colleges have already cut staff: Higher education employed 19,000 fewer workers in March 2020 than in February. Some campuses could be forced to close for good.   

Invariably these losses fall harder on support staff — the janitors, cafeteria workers and maintenance staff, the sorts of workers Trump claims to champion — rather than on professors with tenure. In many cases, these colleges are economic anchors for small towns and rural communities that suffer when jobs are lost and spending tapers off.

Blue collar job losses and sputtering communities do nothing to promote Trump’s goals of restoring the nation’s prosperity. Nor does forcing colleges to change course on reopening plans crafted carefully over the past few months now that COVID-19 cases are surging among a younger population.

Along with barring students whose schools are entirely virtual, the new rule from Immigration and Customs Enforcement requires schools using hybrid models to confirm in the new few weeks that each international student is meeting the in-person hours required to stay in the country. That’s a complex administrative undertaking on a short timeline for schools already low on staff and busy planning their health and safety protocols for the fall. 

As of this week, 9 percent of the nearly 1,100 colleges, whose reopening plans The Chronicle of Higher Education is tracking, are planning online-only semesters and 27 percent are proposing hybrid models. Meaning a third of colleges would have to adjust their fall plans or lose a sizable portion of their students — and their revenue — under the president’s visa proposal. 

As Harvard and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) point out in the complaint filed with their lawsuit Wednesday morning, it’s too close to the beginning of the semester for schools to change their plans or for international students to submit transfer applications to other schools. A federal judge is set to consider a temporary restraining order in the week ahead. 

The policy may lead international students to sit out the semester or, more likely, take their talents to schools in Canada, Germany and other countries where there are fewer coronavirus cases. The American Council on Education was predicting a 25 percent decline in enrollment of international students due to the pandemic, even before ICE released its new rule.

Instead of this misguided approach, the federal government could take action that would actually help higher education institutions and the many communities nationwide for whom they are economic engines.

Congress provided a modicum of support: $14 billion for higher education in the CARES Act stimulus bill approved in March. But much of that money went directly to students. The transition to virtual learning — along with refunds for student parking, housing and meal plans — meant losses that exceeded the money that institutions received from Congress.

In mid-May, the House passed a second wave of stimulus funding with about $37 billion for higher education in the HEROES Act. In late June, Democratic senators proposed a plan to provide $132 billion to keep colleges and universities running during the pandemic.

Republican Senate leaders have promised to consider another stimulus bill when they return from a two-week recess July 20. By providing resources to sustain a critical sector of the economy through the current crisis, they can begin to accomplish what Trump’s attack on international students won’t. 

Phyllis W. Jordan is editorial director and Brooke LePage is a policy associate at FutureEd, a nonpartisan think tank at Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy.