Hold Azerbaijan accountable before it hosts the next UN Climate Conference

Azerbaijan was selected last year as the host country for the upcoming United Nations Climate Conference (known as COP29), which takes place in November. This follows a trend of repressive petrostates facilitating the conference, as Egypt held COP27 and the United Arab Emirates held COP28. The U.N. advocates for an approach to climate change centered around human rights. Yet given Azerbaijan’s questionable commitments to preserving the environment and its repressive approach to governance, activists, journalists and others have voiced their skepticism of the U.N.’s choice to hold COP29 in the capital city of Baku.

Azerbaijan history with the petroleum industry dates back to the 19th century. Azerbaijan developed the world’s first mechanically drilled oil wells in 1846 at Bibiheybat in the Baku region. The Soviet Union accelerated the development of the oil industry in the region, as, in 1951, the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic became the site of the world’s first offshore oil platform. In the 1960s, Azerbaijan discovered several new oil and gas fields that doubled the country’s oil and tripled its natural gas resources.

Since the county’s independence in 1991, Baku has leveraged Azerbaijan’s extensive gas reserves, working with international companies like BP to provide gas to global markets. Following the onset of the Ukraine War, when Europe pivoted away from Russian energy, Azerbaijan stepped up, promising to double its gas exports to Europe by 2027.

Oil and gas exports currently account for about 90 percent of Azerbaijan’s exports and 60 percent of the state budget. According to the International Energy Agency, oil and gas account for more than 98 percent of Azerbaijan’s total energy supply. Moreover, despite its rhetoric about managing environmental impacts, Azerbaijan’s flagship state-owned energy company, SOCAR, holds one of the lowest places in the Oil and Gas Benchmark Ranking of the World Benchmarking Alliance.

Azerbaijan has considerable renewable energy potential and resources, including excellent solar and wind resources and significant biomass, geothermal and hydropower prospects. Baku has fallen short in deploying such resources, however, and has failed to uphold its climate commitments as ratified in the 2016 Paris Climate Accord.

While Azerbaijan made lofty goals of reducing CO₂ emissions by 35 percent by 2030 and 40 percent by 2050, the fossil fuel-reliant country is nowhere near meeting them. The World Bank attributes Baku’s lack of success to the non-oil private sector being held back by several constraints, including access to skilled labor and finance and bottlenecks to market competition, as state-owned enterprises like SOCAR dominate the market.

Accompanying Baku’s reliance on fossil fuels is its abysmal human rights record. In its “Freedom in the World 2024” report, Freedom House categorizes Azerbaijan as “not free,” scoring 7 out of 100 — lower than Somalia and Saudi Arabia. Political rights are practically nonexistent. Issues related to freedom have turned for the worse after Baku’s ethnic cleansing of Armenians from the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Several independent journalists are experiencing a crackdown while being accused of undermining President Ilham Aliyev’s government.

Azerbaijan’s environmental and anti-corruption activists have been affected by government repression. In the past year, reports have circulated of Azerbaijani police having detained, beaten, threatened or obstructed the work of several journalists reporting on environmental protests. Among them is Dr. Gubad Ibadoghlu, a scholar and political activist who focused on the fossil fuel sector by frequently questioning why Azerbaijan’s vast fossil fuel resources have not been invested in making the country more prosperous and democratic. Additionally, he argued that relying on Azerbaijani gas as an alternative to Russian supplies was “unrealistic” and that Azerbaijan misrepresented data and would ultimately resell Russian gas to Europe.

In 2023, Ibadoghlu published a paper titled “New Gas Deal with Azerbaijan for Europe’s Energy Security: Aspiration and Reality,” which questioned European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s characterization of Azerbaijan as a “reliable and trustworthy partner.” He argues that Azerbaijan is actually quite unreliable as a business partner, as the country ranks extremely low on Transparency International’s corruption index, placed lower than Russia.

Ibadoghlu was arbitrarily and violently arrested in 2023, along with his wife, who was later released. In his detention, Ibadoghlu, like other Azeri political prisoners, has been subjected to inhumane treatment. “Conditions in the detention facilities are atrocious,” he wrote to his family. Ibadoghlu’s health has rapidly deteriorated as Azerbaijani authorities have denied him essential treatment for severe medical conditions.

Members of the U.S. Congress and European Parliament have condemned the treatment of Ibadoghlu and demanded his release, but there are no signs that he will be released anytime soon. Before COP29, the international community must pressure Azerbaijan to release Ibadoghlu and other activists if the nation wishes to polish its global reputation. Refusing to participate in Azerbaijan’s “caviar diplomacy” will be necessary to maintain an objective view of Azerbaijan’s repressive activities and hold its government accountable.

Baku’s sin is not just its environmental record but its authoritarian treatment of its citizens, including environmental activists and protesters. COP29 must not be allowed to be a prestige-building opportunity for a regime that continues to silence the voices of its free thinkers.

Alex Little is an MS graduate of Georgia Tech and specializes in Russian and Central Asian affairs. He is also a contributor with Young Voices.