At COP-28 in Dubai this week, weary international delegates and environmental activists celebrated a “historic breakthrough” in negotiations to stop global warming. For the first time in 32 years of negotiations, an agreement mentions “transitioning away from fossil fuels.”
“Officials from around the globe suggested the deal is an important step towards ending the use of fossil fuels,” Aljazeera reported. Other news outlets called it a landmark and historic development. America’s climate envoy, John Kerry, said the words send “very strong messages to the world.”
He’s correct, but not for the reason he meant. The message is that expectations for these annual conferences are so low that even the most inescapable aspiration is reason to cheer.
Inside the COP bubble, the ability even to mention a transition from fossil fuels seemed like a hard-fought victory, at one of the world’s fossil-fuel capitals where nearly 2,500 industry lobbyists were present.
But outside the bubble, it was virtually meaningless — just another COP aspiration without a concrete implementation plan or enforceable goals.
Others include the Paris climate agreement; the Kyoto Protocol; the international commitment to phase out fossil-energy subsidies; the fund wealthy nations established to help developing countries adopt clean energy; the many net-zero carbon pledges made since 2015; the new loss and damage fund to help less developed nations recover from climate disasters; and the agreements at COP-28 to cut methane emissions and triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.
Excitement about merely mentioning a fossil-fuel transition is evidence of meager expectations for these climate conferences. Think about it: A baby born in 1992, when countries began negotiating about global warming, turned 32 years old before agreements could even mention the principal cause of global warming. Low expectations lead to low goals and standards, low performance, and greenwashing — while the opportunity for real action slips away.
At this point, we should question whether more COPs are worthwhile. They have lost their credibility as a productive process. If the United Nations wants to continue, it should set a higher standard. The sponsors of any serious proposal to mitigate global warming must include an implementation plan complete with milestones, performance measures, transparency assurances, and accountability for results.
Anything less is more about optics than substance.
William Becker is executive director of the Presidential Climate Action Project (PCAP), a nonpartisan initiative founded in 2007 that works with national thought leaders to develop recommendations for the White House as well as Congress on climate and energy policies. He is a former senior official at the U.S. Department of Energy. PCAP is not affiliated with the White House.