A glimpse of optimism on climate change 

As leading experts on climate change, we often get asked if there’s hope for the planet — but it may surprise people that we find more cause for optimism than despair.  

We see an energy transition underway that isn’t getting nearly enough attention, and rising investments in adaptation that can make us more resilient to extreme weather. Even as the international community remains far from meeting its climate goals, recent progress shows that widespread change is possible and paves the way for broader action. 

While headlines about climate-amplified disasters have grown, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions dropped by 17 percent from 2005 to 2021 as the size of the economy doubled. Solar and wind costs have plummeted by 70 percent and 90 percent over the most recent decade and account for 80 percent of new electricity generating capacity this year. Domestic sales of electric vehicles are also surging, with over 1 million vehicles sold so far in 2023 — up 50 percent from 2022 and representing one in 10 new vehicles sold. 

These trends have supporting tailwinds of public policy in many states, and at the federal level, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) aims to further lower costs of renewables, electric vehicles, heat pumps and other low-emissions technologies. Recent analysis suggests the IRA can nearly halve U.S. emissions by 2035 while reducing customer costs by as much as $370 per household each year. 

Falling clean energy costs and additional climate policies in the U.S. and elsewhere have helped to reduce the global warming we expect this century, from 3.5 degrees Celsius to 2.4 degrees, in part by making climate action more affordable worldwide. This reflects significant progress, even if countries are not yet on track to meet the Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and falling short on national goals. 

None of this is to minimize the rising and observed impacts of climate change. We are increasingly experiencing the consequences of historical emissions, with climate change-fueled events unfolding more frequently and severely. This year has seen climate records not just broken but shattered — global surface temperatures, Antarctic sea ice loss, ocean temperatures, extreme flooding, heat waves and extensive wildfires, all with substantial adverse impacts for individuals, assets, ecosystems and institutions. 

U.S. households are facing climate-related increases in medical expenses, food prices, insurance premiums and home repair costs, and research has uncovered less-appreciated impacts on mental health, school performance and crime. Government resources are also increasingly strained by spending on disaster response and wildfire suppression, even as lost tax revenue decreases available federal and municipal funding. The full magnitude of impacts will hinge on unknowns around climate variability, technological change, behavioral responses and differential vulnerability.— and this uncertainty itself is an economic burden to a generally risk-averse society. 

Moreover, there are striking differences in who will be harmed by climate change and who will benefit from different responses. Certain individuals may face greater risks due to increased exposure of marginalized neighborhoods or climate-sensitive livelihoods, with impacts unevenly distributed across income levels, credit access, age and race. At the same time, frontline communities have fewer resources to pursue adaptation. 

Limiting climate impacts thus depends on transitioning energy and food systems even faster while also investing in infrastructure and nature-based solutions that will promote resilience in the face of climate-driven extremes now and in the future. Reducing emissions will not negate the need for such adaptation, especially since the U.S. has warmed around 60 percent faster than the planet as a whole. 

Adaptation efforts have the potential to protect human lives, improve quality of life and help restore the natural ecosystems on which we depend. Engaging affected communities through participatory processes can advance more equitable adaptation decision-making. 

Climate-informed markets may support such adaptation. For example, overvaluation of flood-exposed properties highlights the need for accurate risk information to safeguard homeowners and municipalities from equity loss and price deflation due to a housing bubble driven by unpriced climate risks. 

Although incremental adaptation efforts, like installing air conditioners, are already underway, we may need more transformative actions to address the more severe impacts, such as redesigning buildings and updating infrastructure standards. In 2020, global adaptation efforts totaled about one-tenth of spending on emission reductions. Well-planned investments in public infrastructure, community resilience and adaptation serve as vital complements to our decarbonization efforts. 

Our climate future is up to us to decide: We live in the narrow window where the severity of the problem is known, but there is yet time to act. The reason for optimism is that we have the tools to collaboratively work toward reducing emissions, strengthening resilience, motivating adaptation and advancing equity. 

The writers are co-authors of the recently published U.S. Fifth National Climate Assessment; John Bistline and Laura Fischer from EPRI’s Energy Systems and Climate Analysis group contributed to the conceptualization, research and writing of this piece. Delavane Diaz is the principal team lead for climate resilience analysis at EPRI. Steven Davis is a professor of Earth System Science at the University of California, Irvine. Zeke Hausfather is the climate research lead at Stripe and a research scientist at Berkeley Earth.