Australia’s ‘climate election’ is a message for US

“I don’t hold a hose, mate” was the response from now-former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison when asked by a journalist why he was holidaying in Hawaii while Australia literally burned in 2019.  

The people of Australia had their chance to respond last weekend and not only does Morrison not hold a hose, he will no longer hold the prime minister’s office.

Along with victories for pro-climate parties in Germany and Slovenia, it’s a sign that voters across the globe may not be satisfied with politicians who ignore this growing threat to our economy and environment.  

Morrison’s government was defeated by large swings to the opposition Labor Party in rural and urban constituencies alike, resulting in the election of a progressive leader in what was dubbed “the climate election.”

Analysts are also predicting the election of up to four members of the Green Party and up to seven “teal independents,” whose organizing principle is that Australia, one of the world’s largest per-capita carbon emitters and an economy still dependent on coal and other fossil fuels, was not doing enough to combat climate change.  

They contended that the prime minister, seen by many as a climate change skeptic and who infamously walked onto the floor of parliament with a lump of coal in 2017, was not doing enough to protect Australia from climate-driven events like the 2019 bushfires and the more recent historic flooding.  

What’s the relevance for American politics — seemingly dominated by gas prices, inflation and the war in Ukraine? Much like the Brexit result in the United Kingdom was considered a prelude to the election of former President Donald Trump in 2016, the Australian election, in a country with a demographic profile not drastically different from the United States, could spell trouble for candidates who think the politics of climate are stagnant.  

In recent polling, nearly half of Americans say they have experienced more extreme weather-related events in recent years — and more than six in 10 are more concerned about climate change. Two-thirds believe we need address climate change “right now.” 

The question isn’t whether those who fail to grasp the importance of the climate crisis are headed for immediate defeat — there are other factors in play, of course — but that votes are available to candidates willing to lead on this issue. Americans care about the growing dangers of climate change, and they are connecting the dots between our dependence on fossil fuels and the price shocks caused by world events. Decades of having our economy tied to the rollercoaster global oil markets have taken their toll.  

There is a message for both parties. For Democrats, it’s increasingly necessary to deliver on climate commitments. Being the pro-climate party only inspires voters if you get results. For Republicans, it suggests the folly of turning your back on Americans who care about climate change — especially younger voters in both parties who see climate and clean energy progress as simple common sense. Increasingly, there is little price to pay, and moderate voters to gain, for Republicans who embrace the search for climate solutions.  

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has said for years that the Republican Party needs to change its stance on climate change to appeal to the younger generations of voters. No one will accuse Graham of being soft on liberals, but he also knows how to read voters and recently said he hopes to see a 2024 Republican nominee who understands the need for climate action. He knows the parade of wildfires, heatwaves and catastrophic storms are a threat to Americans’ lives and property. Personalities of the moment aside, the debate will increasingly be not over whether to tackle climate change but how.

Australia is politically relevant because, frankly, it’s not Sweden. It’s a fossil fuel producer with a strong free-market streak, making it an instructive example for American political strategists. Its changing energy profile is analogous, too. Where once it employed hundreds of thousands of people in coal mining and other extractive industries, most estimates indicate fewer than 40,000 jobs now exist in these sectors. Meanwhile the renewable energy sector is growing rapidly. 

Like the United States, the politics of climate are becoming as much about economic opportunity and job growth as they are about science and social justice. For candidates who have defined themselves as stewards of the economy, like Australia’s conservative leaders and the Republican Party in the U.S., that predicates a shift in voting patterns.  

For Republicans to maintain the ascendency that current polls show they have in the lead up to November’s mid-term elections, they would be wise to closely study the politics of climate and how they showed up in the election of the United States’ key ally in the Pacific.  

Fred Krupp is president of Environmental Defense Fund.  

Ryan Hamilton is chief of staff at Environmental Defense Fund and a former communications director for the Australian Labor Party.