Running from the Capitol

There was no shortage of congressional candidates running for president in 2008, but it won’t be the same in 2012.

On the Democratic side last time around, Sens. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.) engaged in an epic battle for their party’s nomination. Other congressional Democrats who ran included Sens. Chris Dodd (Conn.) and Joe Biden (Del.) and Rep. Dennis Kucinich (Ohio).

{mosads}Sens. John McCain (Ariz.) and Sam Brownback (Kan.) and Reps. Duncan Hunter (Calif.) and Tom Tancredo (Colo.) were among those vying for the GOP nomination.

In 2012, there is a good chance that only two Republicans on Capitol Hill will mount White House bids: Reps. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) and Ron Paul (Texas).

Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) opted out earlier this year, as did Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.). Meanwhile, Kucinich has indicated he is not interested in challenging Obama in a primary. 

Usually, House members running for president aren’t taken that seriously. That is with good reason; the only House incumbent to win the presidency was James Garfield in 1880.

Bachmann and Paul, should they run, would clearly not be front-runners for the nomination. But they are both forces to be reckoned with. Bachmann is a Tea Party favorite who outraised former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) in the first quarter of 2011. Paul outraised them both.

There was a lot of speculation in 2008 that Paul might do well in the New Hampshire GOP presidential primary, but he finished in fifth place. In fact, he did not win even one state in the primary race that year.

Yet it can be argued he will do better in 2012. Recent polls show that many people agree with his stance that American troops should be withdrawn from Iraq and Afghanistan. There is more distrust of the Federal Reserve now than there was before the 2008 elections. Paul, a Financial Services subcommittee chairman, wrote the book End the Fed.

With the odds of Sarah Palin running for president below 50-50 and falling, Bachmann is positioned to be the only female candidate in the race. She will probably cause headaches for former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) and the rest of the field.

Like her or not, Bachmann knows how to draw a crowd — and television cameras.

Much of the GOP base agrees with Paul’s and Bachmann’s votes against the 2008 Wall Street bailout, as well as their opposition to the recent budget deal that averted a government shutdown.

It’s a good bet that neither will be chosen to face President Obama in the 2012 general election, but they will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the GOP primary.