McConnell’s crystal ball

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is known for keeping his cards close to his chest, forcing political enemies to try to read his poker face. 

But he doesn’t shy away from predictions, and his recent track record is far better than the speculation spouted by Washington Beltway pundits. 

{mosads}In April, McConnell said there would not be a government shutdown, claiming the differences between the parties were not that significant. He was right.

This summer, McConnell repeatedly said the United States would not go into default, predicting that a bipartisan agreement would be reached. That also proved to be true.

Now McConnell’s crystal ball is going for three in a row. 

Over the last several weeks, McConnell has defied conventional wisdom with a forecast that the supercommittee will not deadlock. 

Pundits note that the debt panel comprises six Democrats and six Republicans, each loyal to his or her leaders. The triggers for cuts included in the debt agreement will go into effect, the pundits say, because partisanship has Washington in its inescapable embrace.

McConnell, however, isn’t buying it.

The Kentucky Republican last week said, “Failure is not an option. The committee is structured to succeed. We have put very serious people on there who are interested in getting an outcome for the country. And we fully anticipate they will meet their goals.”

McConnell also gave Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) some grief for saying the chances of the supercommittee succeeding are around 50 percent.

“That’s not good enough,” McConnell told Reid. 

McConnell took a back seat to House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) during the fiscal 2011 budget showdown. But months later, he was in the driver’s seat on raising the debt ceiling. 

His Plan B to raise the nation’s debt level attracted criticism from left and right, but it pushed the sides toward an agreement. 

It remains to be seen how McConnell will attempt to influence the supercommittee, and his role might never become widely known.

Last week he said, “I don’t have any particular instructions that I would give to [the panel members] — or if I did, I sure wouldn’t announce it here today.”

There are many policy reasons why McConnell wants a deal. A growing number of McConnell’s GOP colleagues on Capitol Hill are, for example, speaking out against the defense cuts in the trigger mechanism. One of them, Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), sits on the supercommittee.

Passing a deal would probably boost Congress’s abysmal approval ratings and hamper the White House’s Harry Truman-like campaign strategy of bashing Washington. That, in turn, could boost the chances that McConnell will become majority leader in 2013.