David Webb: Onward to New Hampshire

We’re now officially past the Iowa caucuses, and as it turns out, inevitability is fleeting. 

On the Republican side, Ted Cruz claimed victory, Donald Trump is not inevitable, Marco Rubio is the big story and the first to exit the race is Mike Huckabee. Yes, Ben Carson had a decent showing but with a tough road ahead in New Hampshire, the question is whether he can last till South Carolina. As for the other GOP candidates, they were never inevitable and really not viable except for Jeb Bush because of his deep campaign pockets. 

{mosads}On the Democrats’ side, Hillary Clinton won with a coin toss — actually, six of them — and the story seems more about the odds in the tosses than the Bern felt by Bernie Sanders. Here is a case where the win is redistributed and both claim victory. 

The victory lap is a straight line to New Hampshire. All the candidates are tired and will do what they must for the Granite State sprint, which includes the Saturday WMUR/ABC debate on Feb. 6 and the modified primary on Feb. 9. 

Two important things to note for Republicans: There will be no kids table at the Saturday debate, and New Hampshire is not an evangelical stronghold. This is often the first test for the big tent approach à la Ronald Reagan. 

The New Hampshire primary presents a challenge for both parties in how Granite State residents can vote. Independent or unaffiliated voters can show up, declare a political affiliation and vote. They can then drop or maintain that affiliation after they vote. Can you say wildcard? 

New Hampshire also has voter ID with a twist. The voter can sign a “challenged voter affidavit” before voting instead of presenting a valid photo ID that meets the statutory requirements, not necessarily government issued. One issue in this process is that the affidavits are followed up by a mailer to the address given and a certain percentage come back undeliverable. At this point they are to be turned over to the attorney general’s office to be investigated under voter fraud statutes. The AG’s office does not have enough resources to investigate all undeliverable items. The catch? The vote still counts. 

Is this an opportunity for voter fraud? I’ll leave it to the reader to investigate further. There is a bill proposed to institute a 30-day prior-to-election registration, but there is opposition from Democrats. It wouldn’t affect this primary but would matter in the November general election and every other election in the state. 

There is a lesson for Trump from Mitt Romney. The former Massachussets governor wouldn’t throw RomneyCare under the bus in his 2012 bid. He defended it intelligently based on the state constitution, and nobody seemed to care. Coming off second place in Iowa on Monday, Trump must polish his debate performance and get in depth, even a little wonky. He must effectively own the politics of his past and demonstrate his evolution to today’s Trump. Americans get that in business you play with the party in charge. It’s what Democratic and Republican business owners do. Then he must burnish his conservative credentials and deliver his governance principles.  

Cruz faces numerous challenges in New Hampshire in spite of having an effective ground game apparatus. He has to hit the ground with populism and the Constitution and appeal to the smaller government fiscal conservatives there. 

Rubio must project experience as he continues to appeal to the youth vote. This will be a continuing challenge for him. 

The rest of the GOP field is a jumbled mess and too close — or in a few cases too insignificant — to make substantial calls. Those who are unselfish and see the need to coalesce around an eventual nominee need to drop out. By the way, Jeb! just needs to run as Jeb Bush. Everybody knows his pedigree — own it. It’s not all bad. Carson must look to South Carolina as his political Alamo. He can easily stay in until then. Chris Christie and John Kasich have one last chance this early in the process. Granite is tough to break. 

Republicans must begin to build a coalition of the unlikely — conservative, moderates, independents, Democrats and the disaffected. In our favor is the fact that the electorate has changed. Americans are frustrated with the many failures of the political class. They’re living the reality of bad policies and ineffective government. 

Webb is host of “The David Webb Show” on SiriusXM Patriot 125, a Fox News contributor and has appeared frequently on television as a commentator. Webb co-founded TeaParty365 in New York City and is a spokesman for the National Tea Party Federation. His column appears twice a month in The Hill.