David Webb: Momentum meets reality in the GOP field

This past weekend in South Carolina’s Myrtle Beach, Tea Partyers attended the fifth annual South Carolina Tea Party Coalition convention. For three days there were speeches, debates among attendees and policy discussions at every level. It’s the new reality in American politics — one that many in the establishment would like to see under control. Of the top-tier 2016 candidates only Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson showed up. Mike Huckabee, Jim Gilmore and Rick Santorum also took to the podium to make their case. 

The rise of populism, mainly due to disaffection with government failures from the federal level to the local level, has changed the dynamic and challenged conventional thinking in recent years, and certainly in this presidential election cycle. The American people rightfully feel ignored by the political class. To win them back, the political class must first understand and genuinely demonstrate with clarity that they wish to represent the American people and that the challenges facing America will be dealt with to the people’s advantage, not those of the special interests. 

{mosads}To make sense of this new reality, one must be in the business of not picking horses in the 2016 race but analyzing the horses at the starting gate.

In the recent Fox Business GOP debate Trump harnessed passion, reduced the volume level and laid out significantly more policy points, and the energy and talk in and out of the convention hall in South Carolina was largely positive for him. This coupled with the fact that the outspoken billionaire gets so much media attention gives him an advantage in the primary. If he becomes the nominee, his challenge will be to succeed outside of the Republican base echo chamber. 

Trump also displayed a bit of his compassionate side this past weekend, when a former employee of his business empire who has cancer came to the convention specifically to meet him. (Photo credit goes to Keith Schiller, Trump’s head of security, whom you can see continually by his side. I would ask that my colleagues in the media respect the privacy of someone fighting a deadly disease and not seek her out.) I spoke with her and her friend, who was escorting her, and connected her with the Trump campaign while he was on the stage. He took the time to stop and speak with her a little more closely than his many fans and give her encouragement. I can tell you based on an email that I have in my possession, which I shared with the campaign, that she was more than moved. You can tell a bit about a person in moments where no benefit is attached. 

As to Cruz, who has risen in the polls, it is questionable until voting occurs to see how much momentum he can garner to take away from Trump’s lead in Iowa and then New Hampshire and South Carolina. Should the Texas senator become the nominee, he will certainly have strong support among the Republican faithful, but he will face a challenge in attracting independents and more liberal younger voters. 

Carson, though he is the nicest guy in the field and his intelligence should never be questioned, may not have enough political capital to take him beyond the early-voting states. We won’t know until the first half of February, though. 

Is Marco Rubio for real? In order for him to rise he must first see rival Jeb Bush fall. He presents a bright vision for America but hasn’t answered much as to his prior support for amnesty, which the Republican base certainly does not favor. The Florida senator’s more hawkish stance on dealing with America’s enemies keeps him in the race in large part but is not enough to guarantee a primary victory. He should present an economic plan, not just sound bites, that speaks to millennials and the middle class. 

Jeb Bush’s campaign has all but imploded, if the polls are to be believed. While more establishment and moderate Republicans support the former Florida governor, it’s questionable if he can attract the more conservative base. It’s another case of having intelligence but little in the way of passionate attraction from the base. 

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, meanwhile, are fighting for scraps in the polls. Christie is doing better in New Hampshire, while Kasich is really only doing well in New Hampshire. 

Republicans must do what I advised the grass roots to do this past weekend. If the base focuses on only getting other members of the base to vote for its candidate, it’s wasting a lot of effort. Starting now, Republican primary voters must talk to non-Republican primary voters and begin to bring them over for their candidate of choice, and then in the general election for the nominee chosen by primary voters.  

Webb is host of “The David Webb Show” on SiriusXM Patriot 125, a Fox News contributor and has appeared frequently on television as a commentator. Webb co-founded TeaParty365 in New York City and is a spokesman for the National Tea Party Federation. His column appears twice a month in The Hill.