Webb: Politics, polls and the CNN debate

The pre-debate debate has been all about Carly Fiorina vs. CNN. 

Until late Tuesday, CNN’s controversial debate criteria had threatened to leave Fiorina out in the cold, and the former CEO actively took on the issue in the court of public opinion. 

{mosads}Fiorina clearly won coming out of last month’s Republican debates. Now, this is a performance evaluation, not about picking horses. Put aside your favorite candidate for the moment. She won the happy hour debate outright, according to most analysts. She wasn’t in the prime-time debate competing for oxygen in the world of Donald Trump, and her surge in polling and financial backing post-debate demonstrates this. Former neurosurgeon Ben Carson also has gained steadily since Aug. 6. He is now even with Trump in Iowa and surging in New Hampshire and South Carolina. 

The bombastic Teflon Don continues to dominate in early polls. Like him, hate him or somewhere in-between, Donald Trump has captured the energy of many Americans frustrated with professional politicians and Washington, D.C. The big question for the real estate magnate is, does he have a ceiling — and if so, where is it? 

Campaign structure is of vital importance to candidates — to be viable, they must mount a consistent ground game in the top states, as well as shore up secondary states against primary losses or below average results in February 2016. 

Following the first debate, Fiorina and Carson saw a rise in donor interest and money. Big donors like to look at viability and the potential to win. They will place their bets like big-time gamblers and bet for or against the house if it benefits their beliefs and their interests. Political action committees have also stepped up for these two and other candidates, amazingly, and this early in the race, core supporters and fundraising via social media is significant. 

For all these candidates, one key element will be what they can pick up as others’ polling numbers decline and as competitors drop out of the race altogether. There is also the uninvolved 10 percent of Americans who typically do not get involved until the election is near. Their votes will matter, too. Inevitably — and this is rare in politics but fairly easy to predict — when the first two to three current top-tier candidates drop out, a consistently steady Carly Fiorina will move into the middle of the Republican pack.

The problem with CNN’s original criteria for the Sept. 16 debate was that it included polling that took place before the first debate even happened, which didn’t accurately reflect the change in candidate appeal.

The shift gives Fiorina a much better shot at making the main stage by giving recent polls more weight.

But even if Fiorina were kept out of CNN’s prime-time debate, similar to what happened the first time around with the Fox News/Facebook event, she could become the new underdog favorite. Being relegated to the second tier a second time could play to her advantage. Face it, Americans love an underdog story. 

CNN’s change to its debate criteria makes it a more fair and more accurate measure of the current political status for each candidate — and it helps the network avoid a backlash. With weak ratings against other cable news networks, CNN cannot afford this. The Republican base may not be the biggest viewer block, but it can choose to click away. 

It’s still early in the game — all this is taking place before the Democrat candidates even take the debate field. But right now is the period of the insurgent candidates. Donald Trump’s, Carly Fiorina’s and Ben Carson’s appeal is they are not the typical Washington elite politician. Other candidates may try to use this approach, but it won’t be as effective. Americans by and large just see them as politicians, and skepticism is at an all-time high for many in the Republican base. 

For we media types, this is political pornography.

Webb is host of “The David Webb Show” on SiriusXM Patriot 125, a Fox News contributor and has appeared frequently on television as a commentator. Webb co-founded TeaParty365 in New York City and is a spokesman for the National Tea Party Federation. His column appears twice a month in The Hill.