Webb: The real deal about Chris Christie

He’s announced. I’m telling it like it is. 

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie officially made his bid for the GOP nomination — and eventually the White House — in his hometown of Livingston, N.J., and then he went straight to New Hampshire. 

{mosads}The instant pundit debate over whether Christie can win primaries and win over the Republican base is interesting, but no different from the debate over other GOP candidates. They all have their challenges, their pros and cons. 

The town hall format is a strength, and that matters to Christie’s campaign in a state like New Hampshire, where retail politics and grassroots engagement — or lack of it — can make or break a candidate. Christie had crisscrossed the state prior to his announcement and will likely spend half of his time or more initially there. New Hampshire, unlike many of the Southern states, has a broader representation of the general electorate across the country.

The debate over the spouse of a candidate aside, clearly his wife, Mary Pat, is an asset on the campaign trail as well. She is intelligent, warm and approachable. To some extent she puts a softer side on display for the often-brash Christie. 

But the governor has a New Jersey problem. There will be a attacks based on the state’s credit downgrades, and issues over the Second Amendment, even about immigration in the growth of the illegal alien population. Christie will have to mount a vigorous defense and explanation based on being a Republican governor in a Democrat-controlled state. The bad legacy left by former governors Jim McGreevey and Jon Corzine will only matter to the voters who know this legacy. The more conservative base of the Republican Party has questioned before and will continue to question the governor’s conservative credentials. 

I won’t discount a win or top-three placement in the primary for Christie in South Carolina, however. Sen. Lindsey Graham is not really a factor even in his own home state, and straight-talking politicians have appeal in the Palmetto State. By the time the primary arrives, if Christie is in the top five, he will make a serious effort to win South Carolina. 

Iowa has a staunch Republican base, which will be tough for Christie to win over, and Iowa is not as red as it’s often portrayed, especially in the
general election. The big-money donors and political action committees know this. A decent placement in third, or at least in the top five, in the Iowa primary would keep the New Jersey governor in contention. 

The money matters. Money not only allows for media campaigns and travel — it also grants the ability to put teams in place in key primary states. After all, politics, once the shouting has subsided and the differences are highlighted, is about the ability to mount a consistent and effective ground game. It’s not a question of whether someone like businessman Ken Langone can bundle money for Christie. He is a well-known fundraiser with a significant network. Christie has raised a lot of money, the most of any head of the Republican Governors Association. That gives him access to monetary and political capital. Count on him calling in these favors. 

Who has to attack Christie? First, those who need to draw a stark contrast. The more socially conservative candidates will do this. They will attack on the basis of Christie being a Northern, moderate Republican. The pushback from Christie will be that he is a pro-life Catholic. So this may be a wash. 

The second group includes the candidates whose position he threatens. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Donald Trump will have to contend for some of the same voting block: moderate Republican and independent voters. One of the defenses Christie will have against this will be the fact that he worked with a Democrat-controlled legislature that has a union man as president of the state Senate. Constitutional conservatives like myself understand that a governor has to sign what he or she cannot veto.

The dread and often dead winter months will be hard for every candidate. Political fatigue will set in for even the hard-core base and many Americans will turn instead to Thanksgiving, Christmas and the new year ahead. Politicians may want to hibernate and prepare for the 2016 relaunch. 

Super Tuesday is a long way away, but if Christie survives the winter political doldrums, it will become a much more exciting day. It’s a political pundits dream, and for journalists a feeding frenzy. 

The cynic in me still believes that presidential elections should begin on Jan. 1 of the election year. But then again, like politicians, I am allowed to dream.  

Webb is host of “The David Webb Show” on SiriusXM Patriot 125, a Fox News contributor and has appeared frequently on television as a commentator. Webb co-founded TeaParty365 in New York City and is a spokesman for the National Tea Party Federation. His column appears twice a month in The Hill.