Who will be the next Speaker of the House? 

Following Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) removal, who will emerge as the next Speaker of the House? While this is the first time in our nation’s history that a Speaker has been ousted, there are elections for Speaker at the start of every Congress, so this process is relatively understood. As an academic who has studied these specific elections, here are some guidelines that will likely shape the vote.  

Members of Congress tend to elect Speakers who can help those members reach their specific goals while in office. These goals can vary from person to person, so a candidate for Speaker is usually not someone who can only help in one particular way. Fortunately, these goals are often broadly shared by members, so contenders for the position usually have to excel in just a few ways. 

For many members, re-election to office is their paramount concern. Therefore, they want a Speaker who can make their elections easier, perhaps through campaign contributions to fatten their coffers. Federal officeholders will commonly use leadership PACs to collect and distribute money to other elected officials in their party. Current House Republicans with leadership PACs that were active during the past election cycle include Reps. Steve Scalise (La.), Patrick McHenry (N.C.), and Cathy McMorris Rodgers (Wash.). 

Another goal may be specific leadership positions. Members may wish to sit on certain committees, or to be in positions of power within the caucus itself. This was a technique used by McCarthy back in 2022 when he promised both Reps. Paul Gosar (Ariz.) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.), who had both previously been stripped of their committee assignments, that they would be back on committees and “may have better committee assignments” if Republicans gained back a majority in the House.

Members also have specific policy goals. If someone is in alignment with the caucus on the important issues of the day, they have a better chance at becoming Speaker. Therefore, look for someone to emerge who is in alignment with the GOP on topics such as funding for both the government and the conflict in Ukraine or investigations into the Biden administration. 

Some members are also focused on matters of process within the House itself. These members often have concerns about how business is conducted, such as how the bills are written or amended. In the past, this has been personified by demands emerging from the Freedom Caucus. For example, they have wanted to formalize the “Hastert Rule” for legislation, which would ensure that all bills are supported by a majority of the majority. This suggests that a potential Speaker will likely have the blessing of this group. 

Finally, one of the goals of members of the Republican Party has been staying in the good graces of former President Donald Trump. Though out of office, Trump is the de facto leader of the party, which makes his implicit or explicit endorsement important to members of the GOP caucus. Trump himself has been floated as a potential Speaker, but demurred when asked last year about serving in this position. If Trump puts his support behind a member of Congress, look for many others to fall in line behind him. 

Trying to meet all of these requirements is a tall order. Further complicating this is the tumultuous relationships that Republicans have had with their most recent Speakers: John Boehner resigned from the position and Paul Ryan declined to run for reelection. If the new Speaker fails to meet many of these guidelines, another unprecedented vote for removal is easy to imagine. 

Michael E. Bednarczuk, Ph.D., is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Austin Peay State University. He studies political behavior and public service.