Just like in 2016, false confidence against Trump could be our downfall in 2024

If, as the famous saying goes, a week is a long time in politics, then we have ages to go before Americans choose a president in November 2024. Much will certainly change by then. Despite the many variables that remain unknowable — President Biden’s health, a potential recession, the effects of Donald Trump’s legal battles — most pundits appear highly confident in their prediction that Biden will easily defeat Trump in a rematch.

Not so fast.

The pundits are right that, recent court judgment notwithstanding, Trump appears poised to end up the Republican nominee. But what gives them such confidence that he is doomed in the general election? As public intellectual Niall Ferguson argued compellingly, there are many historical and global examples of populists claiming office in the midst of legal peril.

There is ample reason to believe Trump is already in the process of pulling off his comeback, and that the legal proceedings against him may actually help by giving him the free media coverage he thrives upon. His lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the rest of the GOP field has grown to a staggering 30 points. Approval polls show Biden and Trump neck-and-neck in their unfavorability ratings. Biden is less popular than Trump was at this point in his presidency.

The fact that Trump is an unspeakable pariah at cocktail parties in Washington and New York means precisely nothing, other than that elites are lulled into a false sense of security. “There’s no way he can win,” they surmise. “We don’t know a single person who likes him!”

In that way, 2024 is already shaping up to be much like 2016. That year, the media and the pundits were confident that Trump was doomed. The nation had no backup plan because it didn’t think it needed one. When Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton proved to be a weak candidate, Trump cruised to his “shocking” victory.

Today, the shock has worn off, and the overconfidence has crept back in. It’s true that Trump has more liabilities this time, but he is also stronger and more experienced in other ways, such as his level of experience and the fact that voters can already envision him as a president. We need to learn the lesson of 2016: expect the unexpected. Plan for every contingency.

The country needs some sort of insurance policy to make sure that Trump can’t just slip through and into office again.

One such insurance policy is already in the works from the organization No Labels, which is paving the way for a unity ticket featuring a Republican and Democrat as running mates. There are a number of scenarios, all perfectly plausible, that would necessitate activating the No Labels insurance policy.

Consider some of these possibilities, either alone or in combination. What if Biden continues to run, but his health declines dramatically? What if he starts making public errors that frighten voters? What if voters are so concerned about the prospect of Vice President Harris taking over that they simply won’t support Biden? What if he steps aside as a candidate and the Democrats nominate Harris, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), or someone else who is too extreme to win? What if there is a massive recession? What if Biden keeps the nomination but is implicated in a corruption scandal involving his son? What if Trump improves his standing with non-white voters even more?

The list could go on, but those are some of the most plausible scenarios. Of course, there are also scenarios in which the No Labels insurance policy is not needed. If Biden and Trump are the nominees and Biden is on the path to victory, No Labels has already pledged to stand down. But that is far from a sure thing. In fact, it seems less likely than other alternatives.

When it comes to the possibility of a second Trump term, many on the left are plugging their ears, shutting their eyes, and stamping their feet, refusing to believe that the impossible is in fact possible. They assume that de-platforming Trump and waging war in the courts is the only insurance policy they need. So far, it isn’t moving the needle like they’d hoped, though they can’t admit it to themselves.

That leaves No Labels as the only entity in the country actually positioning itself to protect America from the unthinkable.

Margaret White is executive director of No Labels.