If history repeats itself, the US must be ready

To quote a great fellow Pennsylvanian, Benjamin Franklin: “by failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.” 
I’ve thought a lot about our Founding Father’s words as I’ve watched current events unfold around the world. So much of what we’re seeing right now mirrors itself in history. Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is a stark reminder that bullies like Vladimir Putin will stop at nothing to achieve their endgame: to upend democracy and freedom while chilling all opposition in the process. 

This type of takeover carries precedent. Putin’s quest to conquer Ukraine directly reminds me of the 1930s and ‘40s when Adolf Hitler began a similar pursuit across Europe. For too long, the free world watched from the sidelines hoping European forces could prevent further escalation only to find that Hitler and the Axis Powers were relentless. Thankfully, Allied forces defeated the global bullies of that era. 
Now, over 80 years later, we can consult history for potential answers to this modern power struggle. As Russia’s military assault on Ukraine continues, the United States and NATO allies must respond together. After all, NATO – a collection of 30 nations – was formed in 1949 after World War II to prevent Soviet aggression. NATO’s purpose remains as important today as it was then. A powerful, unified response has served the free world well throughout history.

Much like during World War II, we have existing or looming conflicts in multiple regions – or “theaters” – of the world, including east Asia. Japan was the enemy back then. Today, China is threatening Taiwan, a major American ally in Asia and our ninth-largest trading partner. In recent months, China has been quietly conducting combat readiness drills near Taiwan, an island-nation China still claims to own. This matters for two reasons. First: The Chinese are watching the world’s response to Putin’s attempted land-grab in Ukraine because China is threatening to take over their own neighbor, as well. 

Second: this could directly impact the American consumer. Ninety-two percent of the world’s supply of advanced semiconductor chips – used in everything from our automobiles to cell phones – are made in Taiwan. Any large-scale attack on Taiwan means these chips would likely become scarce if not unavailable altogether. This is why I’m an original co-sponsor of the “Facilitating American-Built Semiconductors (FABS) Act,” which allows for a new tax credit through 2032 for investment in any semiconductor manufacturing facility and for semiconductor design expenditures here at home. The U.S. currently makes just 12 percent of the world’s semiconductor chip supply. 

And these are just the crises before us.

History reflects how a robust American foreign policy has significantly shaped the world, specifically the Western Hemisphere. In the 1800s, the Monroe Doctrine established that a foreign state’s intervention in political affairs of North, Central, and South America was potentially a hostile act against the United States. In the 1900s, the Doctrine’s ‘Roosevelt Corollary’ later established guidelines for U.S. intervention in Latin America. The content within these policies largely addressed actions by European nations – or the inactions of Latin American nations – but I believe they are relevant once again and are worth further review. Here is why. 

We are seeing China’s influence, notably through trade and commerce, greatly sweep across Latin and Central America. In all, 21 Latin American and Caribbean countries now belong to the “Belt and Road Initiative (BRI),” China’s global infrastructure and economic development plan. (Dozens of African nations – along with U.S. adversaries Russia, Venezuela, and Iran – are also members.) From there, China leverages its economic powers to advance their military interests in the region. 

In October 2021, Cuba and China signed construction and energy deals as part of their BRI agreement first established in 2019. This latest workaround undermines U.S. sanctions on Cuba and further strengthens ties between the two Communist countries. Although Latin America and the Caribbean may seem like a world away, remember this: Cuba is just 90 miles from American soil. Suddenly, Cuba’s deep-water ports, which are critical infrastructure for massive military vessels, become a much more serious piece of this global puzzle. 
This geopolitical strategy comes at the same time when U.S. officials say China may be open to providing military and financial aid to Russia in its war against Ukraine, a claim China refutes. This simply cannot happen. Two of the world’s bad actors forming an alliance to topple free nations sounds an awful lot like the stage-setting before World War II.  As the old saying goes, “to be foretold is to be forewarned.” 

We cannot be casual with the term “World War III.” Such a war would cause death and destruction that most of us cannot imagine. But with the patterns formed and actions taken, we must acknowledge the real threats before us. I’m not suggesting the U.S. proactively become engaged in any military conflict. To me, this is about realizing the message Benjamin Franklin conveyed nearly 250 years ago and how we as a nation prepare for whatever comes our way. 

I urge the Biden administration and my colleagues in Congress alike to see these patterns for the threats they truly pose. The global storm clouds are gathering. How the U.S., NATO, and the rest of the free world responds will determine if World War II-era history really does repeat itself. 

Mike Kelly proudly represents Pennsylvania’s 16th District and is a member of the Ways & Means Committee, along with the House Auto Caucus, Congressional China Caucus, and Congressional Taiwan Caucus.