Americans generally don’t care about foreign policy, but it has a strange habit of intruding on our politics and upending presidents and their agendas. And so it is with Joe Biden.
But, unlike most presidents, Biden is not benefiting from the American tendency to rally around the president in times of crisis. Biden’s small polling bump from the State of the Union address is unlikely to be the beginning of a trend. The combination of bad underlying numbers, high probability of a worsening situation in Ukraine and a Democratic coalition constantly at odds with itself sets up Biden and the Democrats for worsening numbers heading into the November mid-terms.
And blaming Vladimir Putin isn’t going to save them.
Predicting future polling is fraught with risk. The problem for Biden is that the polling beyond his approval rating (which remains negative) presents enormous challenges. Issues surrounding Russia are more likely to get worse than better: The invasion of Ukraine is existential for Putin — he has to win, whatever the cost. A defeat would be too humiliating and could be fatal to him personally. Every indication is that Putin will keep pouring military resources into Ukraine — and that the level of violence will increase.
Combine Russian desperation with a Biden administration apparently completely cowed by Putin’s threats and unwilling to provide military aid that could be decisive — Biden won’t even let Ukraine get a handful of used planes — and you have the recipe for a probable Russian victory, grinding and costly as that might be.
It is possible that Putin could be deposed or that the Russian military cannot sustain its efforts, but none of that looks likely.
The Biden administration has been completely reactive and has not been shown to have any medium- or long-term policy. The initiative is entirely with Putin.
Biden could benefit from Russian belligerence if he were viewed as a strong leader, capable of protecting American security. But that’s not the case. Biden has always had problems on the leadership front — losing to Trump consistently on that score. In the most recent YouGov benchmark, Biden loses on the question of whether he is a strong or weak leader, with only 44 percent saying he’s “somewhat” or “very” strong; 69 percent of independents view him as “somewhat” or “very” weak. Overall confidence in him being able to handle an international crisis is also low, with only 33 percent “confident” in Biden’s ability, just 25 percent with independents. On Ukraine itself, just 25 percent think Biden has a “clear strategy,” including just 16 percent of independents.
Worse for Biden is that Americans are united in favoring more aggressive actions against Russia and view Volodymyr Zelensky very favorably (60 percent). The polling problem for Biden is that a deteriorating situation in Ukraine would be disastrous for him. Americans favor more sanctions (73 percent), aid to Ukraine (65 percent), and more weapons (65 percent). The public is strongly opposed to concessions to Russia: only 12 percent favor allowing Russia “more influence”; only 19 percent favor a promise not to admit Ukraine to NATO, and only 18 percent favor a rollback of NATO troops. In all these numbers, there is broad partisan agreement.
The upshot is that hawkish attitudes are likely to continue against Russia, which means that reducing sanctions will be very difficult.
The more violence and atrocities Russians commit, the less appealing the idea of compromise will become. Thus, the disruption in flows of oil and other commodities is likely to continue — and with it, inflationary pressures.
With inflation viewed as a problem by 85 percent of the public (61 percent say it’s “very serious”), this is a big problem for Biden. Blaming Putin might work with the hardcore Democratic base, but that argument will lose steam in short order.
Biden’s approval numbers seem to be propped by personal factors. Biden is down on approve/disapprove in YouGov by 44 percent to 49 percent, but on whether he is “likable,” he is positive at 40 percent to 34 percent. In the recent Morning Consult poll, Biden is negative on approval at 46 percent, but he has good numbers on “compassionate” (51 percent) and “knowledgeable” (51 percent). The public is making its judgment on Biden: Nice guy but can’t do the job.
Biden has had his opportunities in foreign policy. The public wanted out of Afghanistan, and Biden delivered — but the chaotic, fumbling withdrawal cancelled out any political benefit. From that point, Biden’s approval dropped into negative territory and has never recovered.
With Russia, Biden had another opportunity, particularly given Donald Trump’s non-sensical soft rhetoric on Putin. But, in spite of American intelligence predicting the invasion, Biden is playing catch-up, has no plan to substantively help Ukraine turn the tide and has clearly been caught flat-footed in preparing for the fallout of sanctions. Their own allies on Capitol Hill forced the oil embargo on a reluctant administration.
Biden’s own squabbling domestic political coalition is proving an additional drag. In response to rocketing gas prices, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm wants to increase oil production; Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg wants people to buy electric cars, and administration spokesperson Jen Psaki just wants to shift the blame. For an administration caught between climate change demands by its activist base and rising public anger over the price at the pump, there is simply no solution that will work.
Russia and Putin made a huge mistake invading Ukraine. The costs will be enormous and will not fix Russia’s long-term problems. But that’s cold comfort for Biden. It took exactly 12 years and a day from its invasion of Afghanistan to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Perhaps the current unprecedented sanctions will do the trick to Putin in shorter order, but more likely not.
Joe Biden was elected based on not being Donald Trump. His political coalition was only united by hatred for Trump. Now faced with a series of crises, Biden’s administration has few answers. Just like the 2020 campaign, they are reactive, passive and hoping to muddle through. That strategy is not going to work and is setting up the Democrats for an Election Day disaster this fall.
Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.