‘Purple America’ will set political direction in 2022

Six states were at the epicenter of the 2020 election and the bogus post Nov. 3 fiasco: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia — all were closely decided, and they provided the margin of victory for President Biden and Democratic control of the Senate. Looking ahead to 2022, these same six states will likely be the focal point again determining which party has a Senate majority.

This is purple America.

It seems premature to discuss an election 21 months away, but both parties are targeting resources for these half dozen battlegrounds — there may be a few others — which reflect the intensity and partisanship of American politics. Senate candidates already are announcing.

Both the battle for the House and the electoral parameters for the next presidential election will be affected by the 2020 census final results, sometime this summer. Republicans will benefit with states carried by Trump, picking up a net of five or six electoral votes.

In the House, Republican-controlled legislatures will control redistricting in Texas, Florida and North Carolina, all of which gain seats. All three have a history of partisan gerrymandering, North Carolina the most flagrant.

The six most purple states, five carried narrowly by Biden who lost a close race in North Carolina, all have Senate races on the ballot next year, three currently are Republican held and three are Democratic. It doesn’t get any tighter.

There may be other contested Senate races, the stakes are so big. With incumbent Ohio Republican Rob Portman’s retirement, Democrats are eyeing Ohio, and Republicans are taking a look at New Hampshire, where Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan, also a former governor, is up for reelection. It’s uncertain whether Iowa Republican Charles Grassley, who will be 89 next year, or Vermont Democrat Pat Leahy, who will be 82, will run.

We know all the purple six will be in play. In Arizona, Democratic Senator and former astronaut Mark Kelly, elected to complete the late John McCain’s term, will be tough to unseat in a state that has moved away from its reliable Republican roots. That is especially so with the right-wing takeover of the GOP in Arizona — even disowning Republican Gov. Doug Ducey who was reviled by Trump for refusing to go along with baseless voter fraud claims — all of which has alienated independent voters.

Likewise in Nevada, where Democratic incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto is the clear favorite. Jon Ralston, the political expert of all things Nevada told me the GOP has an uphill road unless “the Republicans nominate a moderate; and a moderate probably couldn’t win a primary.” The toughest foe would be Brian Sandoval, the current president of the University of Nevada, Reno, which Sandoval calls a “dream job” — one he wouldn’t likely relinquish to spend time with Ted Cruz (R-Texas) in Washington.

The most challenged Democratic incumbent is Georgia’s Raphael Warnock who just won a special election last month to fill out a term. A black pastor, Warnock was a surprisingly strong candidate. Republican advantages in an off-year Georgia election are offset by its bitter internal divides. Trump has vowed to campaign against conservative Republican Gov. Brian Kemp who refused to support Trump’s phony claims about Biden not winning the state in November.

Among Republicans, Wisconsin’s Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, who may renege on his promise to only serve two terms, is losing support after his hyper partisan support for Trump; only days before the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol, Johnson still was peddling the stolen election conspiracy. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel called for his ouster before the insurrection. Democrats are lining up, including statewide elected officials.

The Pennsylvania seat of retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey is wide open; it may depend on which party can avoid nominating its more ideological candidate.

Also wide open is North Carolina, where Republican Sen. Richard Burr is stepping down. The Trumps have fanned talk that the former president’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, a native of the Tar Heel state, might run. That’s probably a publicity stunt. For Democrats, there are two potentially strong Black possibilities: Anthony Fox, the former mayor of Charlotte and Barack Obama’s Transportation Secretary, and Cheri Beasley who was chief justice of the state supreme court.

Unlike in the other five states, there is not a governor’s race in North Carolina, but there are two contests for the state supreme court (where Democrats have a one-seat advantage) — both are currently held by Democrats, one by Sam Ervin IV, grandson of the legendary Watergate-era senator. The state courts have thwarted some of the massive overreaches of the right-wing legislature, including drawing of congressional and state legislative seats.

Traditionally, the party not holding the presidency does well in off year elections — but this time may be different, depending on how the Trump-inspired internecine Republican battles evolve… and whether President Biden gets good marks for controlling the pandemic and if there’s a robust economic recovery.

Al Hunt is the former executive editor of Bloomberg News. He previously served as reporter, bureau chief and Washington editor for the Wall Street Journal. For almost a quarter century he wrote a column on politics for The Wall Street Journal, then The International New York Times and Bloomberg View. He hosts 2020 Politics War Room with James Carville. Follow him on Twitter @AlHuntDC.