It began with a poor debate performance, and continued with a press conference that showcased the limitations of a public servant who appeared to have overstayed his welcome. Referring to Vice President Harris as “Vice President Trump” did not do the president any favors, nor did calling Ukrainian President Zelensky “President Putin.” Joe Biden’s recent decline likely has been occurring for some time, though it has become more public only since his debate debacle.
It all culminated this week in President Biden stepping aside as the Democratic nominee for president, the first such action of a sitting president since Lyndon Johnson did so in 1968.
The assassination attempt on Donald Trump, the now confirmed Republican nominee, deflected some of the discussion on Biden. However, the issue remained front and center in the minds of many Democrats who hope to retain the White House for another four years.
Biden’s actions were much like an aging star professional athlete who holds on just a bit too long, performing with skills that are a shadow of their former self. Fans watch on knowing that what they loved and admired about this person has faded away. Willie Mays’s last season (1973) as a New York Met comes to mind.
Democrats now have a glimmer of hope with Biden stepping aside. Recall that Trump supported Biden staying in the race. Biden’s 11th hour flip requires the Trump campaign to pivot to a new strategy that will require both time and money, with much more risk.
Trump’s campaign would have continued to focus on attacking Biden’s age. Such an approach would now actually backfire on Trump. If elected in November, Trump (born June 14, 1946) will be older (by five months) than Biden (born Nov. 20, 1942) when Biden was inaugurated in January 2020. Given Biden’s decline over the past year, Democrats can remind voters of this possibility with a Trump presidency. This makes Trump far more vulnerable and exposed than with Biden in the race.
A shift in the Republican strategy will also be expensive. In today’s politics, money is what speaks loudest. The total cost of the 2020 election exceeded $14 billion, with the presidential campaigns using $5.7 billion of this total. There is every reason to believe that the 2024 election campaign will exceed this number.
Efforts to convince Biden to end his candidacy did not initially work. Yet pressures from multiple sources eventually won the day; the Democratic Party will have a new nominee. Most importantly for many, voters will have an alternative to Donald Trump in November, a person who continues to make false claims that the 2020 election was stolen, and may not accept defeat in 2024. Not only will “never Trump” conservatives or die-hard Democrats be happy, but independents and moderates can be encouraged to show up on Election Day with someone to support besides Trump.
The situation for Republicans gets far less certain with Biden out of the race. A party supports their candidate because they believe they can win. What seemed like a slam dunk for Republicans is now reduced to a dribble.
Polls about who will win the election are uninformative at this early point in time. What is more informative is how people feel about the candidates and how they feel about their situation and world affairs — and how these sentiments translate into votes at the ballot box.
Given the Democrat pivot from Biden, could this push Trump to be pressured to step aside as well?
No one can imagine that Trump would voluntarily step aside after being confirmed as the nominee. But the political landscape has dramatically shifted from two senior citizens in the race to one senior citizen and a yet to be confirmed nominee. Trump’s mental acuity will now be center stage and far more exposed.
Biden has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to be his successor on the top of the ticket. She will likely get the nod, given that the election is just over 100 days away.
What should concern Republicans the most would be a ticket from the Democrats that includes youth (which is all but guaranteed), from a battleground state (think Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona or even North Carolina) that can build upon the best achievements of Biden’s presidency without retaining its baggage.
Given the predictive nature of the 13 Keys to the White House, Harris would need to be the presidential nominee, or at least remain on the ticket as the VP. Gov. Gavin Newsom of California, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Gov. Roy Cooper of North Carolina and Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona certainly stand out as attractive choices for the ticket.
Joe Biden has enjoyed a remarkable career in public service as an elected official for over one-half a century. Independent of whether one likes or dislikes his politics, he served the nation with honor and distinction. His stepping aside, albeit personally painful, demonstrates care for the country and his commitment for its well-being. Now, planning for his replacement has become the top priority.
The Democratic Party knows this. The Republican Party should fear it. But most importantly, the American people deserve it.
Sheldon H. Jacobson, Ph.D., is a professor of Computer Science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He applies his expertise in data-driven risk-based decision-making to evaluate and inform public policy.