There’s nothing worse in baseball than watching a towering home run ball hook foul. And that sums up Donald Trump’s biggest speech of his life. It was the former president’s chance to crush the Democrats’ chances. Instead, he has given them hope.
Trump’s acceptance started out very strong. He was doing exactly what he needed to do: show he is not the big, bad wolf the Democrats make him out to be. The retelling of his near-death experience was powerful and lent him some vulnerability and humility. The message of unity is exactly what voters who dislike Trump and Joe Biden want to hear.
And then the wheels started to come off.
It was subtle at first. He pivoted right to the prosecutions against him and made the declaration that he is the one saving democracy, not threatening it. That was not too bad, as most voters are not buying the Democrats’ sanctimonious and dubious crusade for democracy. Trump also mixed in some humor — an underrated asset by him.
But that was not a detour, it was the new road Trump was taking. He played to the crowd present instead of addressing the television and streaming audience. The speech devolved into a typical Trump rally: a long set of criticisms, hyperbole and vague promises. Round and round he went, with nobody knowing when he would stop.
Trump failed to put real meat on the bone. He is going to cut taxes, pay down debt, stop inflation and create the greatest economy ever. How is anybody’s guess. When it comes to immigration, crime and national security, his only strategy is to get tough.
At one point the ex president actually said, “We’ll end lots of different things.” And that about sums it up. That is simply not good enough for reluctant Trump voters, undecideds or shaky Biden voters.
Among some of the worst hits of the night was jabbering on about “right to try” without explaining what it is (it’s the use of experimental drugs in emergency situations). Forcing your audience to go on a detective hunt to figure out what you mean is never a good idea.
He took a swipe at El Salvador President Nayib Bukele, whose policies did not send criminals to the U.S. but to prison in El Salvador. Bukele is a conservative hero and won re-election with 85 percent — Trump should be getting advice from him.
He claimed illegal immigrants are taking 107 percent of our jobs. What? And what’s the deal with Trump’s Hannibal Lecter fetish?
Buried in the speech were some good attack points. He hit at the United Auto Workers’ leadership for selling out their members when it comes to electric vehicles. Trump promised to re-direct trillions from Biden’s version of the Green New Deal, correctly pointing out that the Biden administration has barely spent any of it (although he missed a chance to hit them on their incompetence). His hit on Afghanistan was strong.
But Trump’s strong points were stranded in a morass of repeated catchphrases and riffing. That speech was a momentum-killer and a stupendously lost opportunity.
Where do we go from here?
It is hard to imagine a more favorable course of events for any presidential candidate. Your opponent has a cognitive meltdown before tens of millions of people, his party is in open revolt while he fails to reassure them and you literally dodge a bullet. Yet, Trump’s standing in the polls has only slightly improved.
In the RealClearPolitics ballot test, Trump still cannot top 50 percent, although he is near his high at 47.5 percent as of July 18. Biden has risen a bit from his recent low right after the debate, at 43.8 percent. He now sits at 44.7 percent. In RCP’s seven battleground states, Trump is in the lead in all, but still not over 50 percent. His best percentage is in Pennsylvania, just under 48 percent.
The most recent YouGov poll is like most of the others: Both Biden and Trump are unpopular, with the president hitting new lows. The RCP favorability average has Trump down 12 points. Biden has sunk just under 40 percent approval, with a deficit of over 17 points.
But it is looking like a matter of “when,” not “if” Biden will be off the ticket and replaced by Vice President Harris.
Switching gears
It is easy to dismiss Harris, looking at her individual polling numbers. But she mostly tracks Biden, which is understandable and makes much of that polling not very instructive. The open question is, what will Harris do as the nominee? Will she break with Biden on issues that are hurting him? Does she have the political skills to do it?
Due to Biden’s terrible media run of late, suspicions by much of the public that his staff has been hiding his decline and reports that his inner circle and family have been walling him off from reality, Harris has some plausible deniability for the problems of the administration.
As importantly, Harris has an opportunity to change the tone of the race and adopt a more unifying and positive profile that would appeal to voters who dislike both Trump and Biden. You know, the voters who will decide the race.
That is one big wildcard. But Trump and his team should anticipate the worst – that Harris will make the shift she needs and can pull it off. Trump’s own stumbling performance has to hearten Team Harris.
Trump hasn’t learned a thing
So much for a 78-year-old man changing. For about 15 minutes, New Trump looked like a big winner. But Old Trump came back and he is not going anywhere. Trump’s lack of discipline and unwillingness to take advice continue to bedevil him.
What Trump does not understand or is unwilling to admit is that his rise in the polls is entirely the result of Biden’s incompetence. Trump took the lead in key swing states this fall with the rise in illegal immigration and the Hamas attacks on Israel. Trump was buoyed by inflation. The debate was a disaster for Biden. Even the assassination attempt was, to a significant extent, the result of incompetence by the Secret Service, led by a Biden appointee.
Trump is leading by simply existing, not by anything Trump has done. Trump and his campaign have been coasting on Biden’s bad news buffet, and coasting is no way to win an election.
Trump finally had his chance at the plate last night, and he fouled it off.
Keith Naughton is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant.