Bet on Nancy Pelosi to show Joe Biden the door

Nearly 50 years ago, Richard Nixon resigned the presidency. Now, another presidency is in crisis.

Former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has signaled to her colleagues in Washington and beyond that doing nothing about President Biden’s obvious mental acuity decline is not an acceptable course of action. The irony of this situation is that Pelosi is nearly three years older than Biden.

Pelosi watched as Biden ran for political cover to the Congressional Black Caucus, almost none of whom represented anything resembling a competitive district. She watched as so-called moderates cowered in the face of their Black colleagues afraid to make the case that the Black caucus is not determinative in achieving a House majority.

She waited for signals from the Senate side of the Capitol that Democratic Party heavyweights were ready to speak the truth to the president of the United States. Very few Senate Democrats were willing to write an addendum to “Profiles in Courage.” They took their cue from Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and his constant refrain “I’m for Joe.”

But Biden’s Senate coalition cracked when Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) went on cable television to say that Biden was going to lose and take the House and Senate with him. Second-ranking Senate Democrat Dick Durbin (Ill.) and third-ranking Patty Murray (D-Wash.) issued statements casting doubt on Biden’s political viability and taking a wait-and-see position. 

Then, the Senate dam broke when Peter Welch (D-Vt.) wrote in The Washington Post that Biden should not seek reelection.

But others held back.

Looking at a divided Senate Democratic Conference and House Democratic Caucus dominated by timidity, Pelosi grabbed the reins and gently but unmistakably reopened the conversation on Biden’s future just 24 hours after the president’s team thought it had the “dump Biden” movement well under control.

Pelosi is not philosophically governed. She is practical and one of Washington’s best political hardball players. She understands the swing seats Democrats must win to take back the House majority. She knows which incumbent members are endangered. She understands there is a huge down-ballot difference between losing a national election by 6 points rather than by 2. 

After the 2022 election, Pelosi was quick to point out that the new very slim Republican majority was built on the four-seat Republican pickup in New York State. Pelosi laid the blame, correctly in my view, right at the feet of New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) for being asleep on the crime issue.  

When Pelosi was Speaker, she ran the House with an iron hand. She seldom lost a vote on the floor.

I helped run the Republican National Committee’s “Fire Pelosi Campaign” in 2010. We succeeded in making Pelosi the face of left-wing Obama administration policies and a very sluggish economy. The result: Republicans gained 63 House seats. Tea Party enthusiasm and the then-controversial ObamaCare helped.

Pelosi was a convenient target. The Republican base despised her before Obama was elected.

A less steely opponent would have curled up and been gone from the scene. Not Pelosi. She took on her role as leader of the minority party in the House and skillfully positioned it to win back the majority. Always supportive of the Democratic Party and its other leaders, Pelosi was always certain to make her presence and her influence known. 

Eight years later, she led the Democrats to a new House majority and led the effort to frustrate the second half of President Trump’s term.

Pelosi understands that Biden’s reelection chances are between slim and none, and slim likely left town on the night of the debate. She also understands that the top of the Democratic ticket, whoever it is, must win the popular vote by 4 percent to 5 percent for her party to win a majority in the House. She recalls that in 2020 Biden won the popular vote by 4.5 percent, but Democrats lost multiple seats in the House.

Pelosi is the muscle, hired by rank-and-file Democrats to do what they do not have the courage to do. She is now the experienced political leader tasked with saving Democrats up and down the ballot from a decisive defeat caused by a stubborn president, his reality-denying family and an unstoppable aging process that can only get worse.

Oddsmakers say bet on Pelosi.

Kevin Igoe is the former deputy chief of staff of the Republican National Committee and former chief of staff of the Maryland Department of Budget and Management.