Over the course of the last two years, I have written several pieces saying I don’t believe President Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee in November. For a number of pragmatic, commonsense, “Campaign 101” reasons, it simply makes no sense.
To that very point, MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” co-host Joe Scarborough — who speaks of his “love” for Biden — asked a very logical question yesterday after Biden’s perceived debate meltdown: “If he were CEO and he turned in a performance like that, would any corporation in America, any Fortune 500 corporation in America keep him on as CEO?”
I suspect the answer from all except those deep in the tank for Biden or profiting off his presidency would be a resounding “No.”
But, as former Clinton, Obama and even Biden alums rightfully hit the panic button because of Biden’s faltering performance at the debate on Thursday night, I maintain that the “replace Biden” scenario creates a potential political minefield for Team Trump.
While most rational Americans might now agree — based upon Thursday night’s debate fiasco, coupled with numerous policy failures — that it does make sense for the Democratic Party to switch out Biden for another nominee at the convention in August, would that actually be a net-positive, campaign-wise, for former President Donald Trump? I don’t believe so.
During an interview with Fox News Digital after the debate, Trump was asked if he believes Biden will be the Democratic nominee.
“Yes, I think he will be the nominee,” the former president answered. When asked about the growing calls to replace Biden, Trump observed: “No, I don’t think so. They wouldn’t have done any better. No one else would have been better.”
Trump declared that he “beat” Biden, and that he would have beaten anyone else on stage with him. That is most likely true and, if you are on “Team Trump,” you have to love the confidence.
A flash poll conducted by CNN following Thursday night’s presidential debate did in fact report that Trump soundly beat Biden in the debate: 67 percent of debate viewers believed that Trump won, compared to 33 percent who believed that Biden won.
Would Trump have gotten similar or even better numbers, had he debated a different Democrat? Quite possibly. But that is not the greater question or concern for those hoping for a Trump victory in November. The greater question for Team Trump is now: Is it better to run against the “devil you know” than against one you don’t?
The obvious answer for me — and many I speak with — is that it would be much better for Trump if Biden remains the Democratic nominee. Reason one of course being Biden’s debate disaster. CNN reported that 48 million Americans watched the debate on Thursday night. It is very logical to assume that millions of those viewers had not been paying much attention to the campaign up until that point, as they were trying to live their lives. For those millions, a large percentage of them would have had a “cold bucket of water” thrown in their face because of Biden’s performance. That becomes a huge net-plus for Trump.
As former President Trump knows, success or failure in politics is often about perception over reality. One of the many reasons Trump won the election in 2016 is that he did (and does) have an elusive “It Factor.” It is an X-factor that can’t be manufactured. You either have it or you don’t.
If you are Team Trump, the last thing you want to see is “a knight in shining armor” riding into the convention in Chicago to “save” the Democratic Party. Especially if that “knight” might have his or her own “It Factor.” At that point, it matters not if Trump could have beaten that person in the debate. It then all comes down to perception and momentum over the last three months of the campaign.
After Thursday’s debate, Team Biden insisted that Biden would not be dropping out of the race. That, in my opinion, is a very welcome pronouncement for Team Trump. They should be thrilled to be running against the Biden-Harris ticket.
The last thing they need is some new knight popping up over the horizon — be it California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro or anyone else — and creating positive buzz and renewed hope at a time when Biden is self-destructing.
Could Trump best any new “knight” on the political battlefield? The odds and recent history say he could. But much better for him to charge at the one already slipping off his horse.
Douglas MacKinnon, a political and communications consultant, was a writer in the White House for Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and former special assistant for policy and communications at the Pentagon during the last three years of the Bush administration.