The 5 big reasons Trump won the debate and is pulling ahead

The age and cognitive worries swirling around President Biden came into full light at last night’s debate. Biden’s clearly halting and at times seemingly confused performance caused my phone to blow up.

It did so because two weeks ago I had written in this space that if Biden seemed even remotely confused, lost or “frozen,” the Democratic Party might have to replace him at the convention. He was clearly confused and lost at times.

And in case viewers were not quite paying attention to Biden’s verbal struggles, at one point during the debate, former President Trump said, “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don’t think he knows what he said either.”

That obvious concern being one of the reasons the latest Gallup poll just reported “age and cognitive issues” to be a liability for Biden. As that organization reported: “At 81, Biden is three years older than Trump, who turned 78 this month. Despite their similar ages, Americans are nearly twice as likely to say Biden is too old to be president (67%) as say this about Trump (37%) … Biden’s age is not just a potential liability among Republicans and independents … but also among a sizable minority of Democrats. Forty-four percent of Democrats say Biden is too old, and 31% are very worried about it.”

Several months ago — based upon tens of conversations with Americans on both sides of the Trump/Biden political divide — basically everyone I spoke with had not only made up their minds about whom they were going to vote for, but were spot-welded to the bottom of their very deep political and ideological silos. But then, I noticed a real shift.

That shift was birthed by the “lawfare” Democratic and clearly partisan district attorneys, prosecutors and even state supreme courts were using to attack former Trump. By purposefully travelling that low road in a transparent attempt to knock the presumptive Republican nominee out of the election, it can be argued that partisans on the left created a Frankenstein’s monster that has now turned on them.

Since the conviction of Trump at the Manhattan trial orchestrated by Alvin Bragg, the former president has been gaining in the polls. Earlier this week, Quinnipiac released the results of a poll showing Trump ahead of Biden by four points among registered voters, 49 to 45.

Also this week, the New York Times, in conjunction with Siena, released a poll showing Trump leading Biden by six points among registered voters, 48 to 42. Pollster Nate Silver just put out a report stating that Trump now has a 66 percent chance of winning. Finally, the Washington Post just reported that Trump comfortably leads Biden in most of the key swing states.

With that as real-time background, one reason Trump won the debate was because potentially hundreds of thousands to even a few million Americans who, prior to the “lawfare” campaign waged against Trump, had closed their minds and were going to vote against him, may have now opened those minds, actually listened to his vision for the country — and will change their votes.

They may have done so because, first, they believe that tactics used against Trump were sleazy. Next, many may have been awakened to the frightening possibility that: “if they can do that to a billionaire former president, they can do that to me or someone in my family.”

Why is that so important? Because — from the perspective of one who has worked on three winning presidential campaigns — these races are often won on the margins. Meaning if you can shave one-half of a percent off one district; one-quarter of a percent off one county; and one-eighth of a percent off one state, you can win the election.

Proof of that being no further back than 2020, when approximately 50,000 votes flipped the other way would have changed the outcome of the election. Trump gets that, as he is rightfully turning his back on decades of GOP stupidity to campaign in the bluest of cities and states. He is ceding no vote to Biden in this election and will shave off once reliably Democratic voters.

Next, we come to the economy. While it must be nice to be an entrenched elite from either party living in the bubbles of luxury, ignorance and denial floating high above suffering Americans, that club of hedonism still only equates to a tiny fraction of the population. Tens of millions of Americans struggle at one time or another to pay the bills. Far too many fight every single day simply to survive.

I grew up in abject poverty as a child, so I know a great many Americans from across the political spectrum who are living paycheck to paycheck. All believe “Biden-flation” is decimating their quality of life and that they were better off during the Trump presidency than they are now.

Next, we come to the border or — for millions of Americans dealing with increased violent crime, disappearing jobs and increased threats of terrorism in their towns, cities and states — our lack of a border. Trump successfully hit that subject hard at the debate and Biden had no plausible defense for his failure.

Finally, we come to the weakening of the United States in the eyes of the world, as President Biden seemingly bows to far-left activists on climate change and identity politics as China, Russia, rogue nations and terrorist organizations openly taunt and target our nation.

If Trump continues to push the age and cognitive issues attaching to Biden; the “weaponization of the law”; an economy failing tens of millions of at-risk Americans; a collapsing border that is increasing crime; and a failing United States in the eyes of our enemies, the former president should find himself back in the White House come January 20, 2025.

Douglas MacKinnon, a political and communications consultant, was a writer in the White House for Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and former special assistant for policy and communications at the Pentagon during the last three years of the Bush administration.