This election, the Catholic vote is essential for the Biden campaign

President Biden has returned from two very successful trips to Europe. One was to mark the 80th anniversary of the Normandy invasion during World War Two. The other was to attend a G-7 meeting in Italy. 

Both journeys emphasized Biden’s foreign policy chops and highlighted the danger of fragmenting key U.S. security alliances, should Donald Trump return to office. 

Many political commentators noted the similarities between Biden’s trip to Normandy and Ronald Reagan’s journey there 40 years earlier. Both spoke at Pointe du Hoc and uttered nearly identical lines celebrating American bravery and the fight for democracy.  

In 1984, Reagan said, “Democracy is worth dying for because it’s the most deeply honorable form of government ever devised by man.”  

Forty years later, Biden echoed Reagan: “We must be the keepers of their mission, the bearers of the flame of freedom that they kept burning bright.” 

But something important was overlooked. Both visits occurred during election years. For both Reagan and Biden, wooing Catholic voters was key. In 1984, Reagan granted diplomatic recognition to the Vatican, a long-sought goal of the Holy See. 

After the announcement, Faith Whittlesey, assistant to the president for public liaison, said, “The rank-and-file Roman Catholics are pleased that this has taken place.” Indeed, they were. 

This year, pictures of Joe Biden’s meeting with Pope Francis were transmitted to the television networks. After Biden’s first meeting with the Pope as president in 2021, Francis called Biden “a good Catholic,” with a grateful Biden replying, “God love ya.” The implied papal imprimatur can only help Biden, as the Pope currently enjoys a 75 percent approval rating among American Catholics. 

The Catholic vote matters. In 1952, Republicans fervently courted Eastern Europeans, many of whom were Catholics. Four years later, Republicans created a Nationalities Division within the Republican National Committee. 

The party chair was advised that 85 percent of voters with relatives behind the Iron Curtain lived in 17 states worth a total of 302 electoral votes. That year, states with large Catholic populations — including New York, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island — decided they liked Ike.

Taking note of the Catholic defections, Democrats nominated John F. Kennedy in 1960. That bet paid off handsomely, as Kennedy won nearly 8 of 10 Catholic votes. And those heavily Catholic states cited above defected from Eisenhower to Kennedy. 

But Republican efforts to woo Catholics persisted. In 1980, Reagan won 47 percent of Catholics to Jimmy Carter’s 43 percent. Four years later, he increased his share to 56 percent. By 2004, another Catholic Democrat from Massachusetts, John F. Kerry, lost the Catholic vote to George W. Bush. 

E. J. Dionne has written that there is no Catholic vote, and it’s important. Parsing this seemingly contradictory statement, Dionne notes that today, unlike in the 1960s, Catholics no longer vote as a bloc. Instead, while their party loyalties are unpredictable, they remain an important weathervane.  

Consider: In 2016, Donald Trump won 50 percent of Catholics compared to Hillary Clinton’s 46 percent. In 2020, Biden bested Trump among all Catholics, 52 percent to 47 percent. 

Today, polls find Catholics preferring Trump, 55 percent, to 43 percent for Biden. Yet there are opportunities for Biden to make inroads with Catholic voters. 

Crucial is the threat posed by Vladimir Putin and his dream of restoring what Ronald Reagan once called the “evil empire.” The Russian invasion of Ukraine has struck fear in those countries most threatened by Russia — including Poland, the Baltic states and other nations in Eastern Europe. Putin is the most disliked world figure in the U.S., with an unfavorable rating of 78 percent. And 67 percent of Americans believe Putin intends to invade other countries besides Ukraine. 

Nations most uneasy about Putin’s objectives have sizeable ethnic populations in the U.S. For example, Pennsylvania and Michigan each have more than three-quarters of a million Poles; in Wisconsin, there are nearly half a million. Virtually all are Catholic. And each is key to Biden’s reelection chances.

Similarly, Biden can reap rewards among mostly Catholic Hispanic voters in Nevada and Arizona. Both states were close calls in 2020 and will be again this year. 

Biden is well-positioned to make a concerted outreach to Catholic voters. While he is only the second Catholic to become president after John F. Kennedy, no president is more Catholic. The church became a place of solace for Biden after repeated family tragedies. And unlike past presidents, Biden is a faithful churchgoer, regularly attending mass each weekend.  

It is often said that this year’s election “is the most important of our lifetimes.” Like most axioms, there is considerable truth to this statement. As Biden likes to remind voters: “Democracy is on the ballot. Your freedom is on the ballot.”  

At another inflection point in history, Secretary of State George Marshall delivered a 1947 commencement address at Harvard University, urging approval for what eventually became the Marshall Plan. In his speech, Marshall said, “The whole world hangs on a proper judgment” by the American people.

Today, in a different context, Marshall’s warning carries no less meaning. The entire world hangs on the judgment Americans will render in November.  

Message to Wilmington: Winning the Catholic vote is important, and the Biden campaign must take notice. Time is running short. 

John Kenneth White is a professor emeritus at The Catholic University of America. His latest book is, “Grand Old Unraveling: The Republican Party, Donald Trump, and the Rise of Authoritarianism.”