We are just under five months from Election Day. The presumptive rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump appears set.
But is it really?
The RealClearPolitics betting average for Joe Biden to be named as the Democrats’ nominee is hovering just under 80 percent, with a downward trend over the past month. Other candidates with betting averages around or above 5 percent include California Gov. Gavin Newsom and former first lady Michelle Obama. For a sitting president with no in-party challengers, this should be concerning. In fact, at this time in 2020, Biden’s betting average was over 10 percentage points higher.
On the Republican side, the RealClear betting average for Donald Trump has been mostly over 90 percent for the past three months. The person with the next highest betting average is former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, at around 2 percent. This suggests that the betting markets are confident that Trump will be the Republican nominee. However, with his sentencing from his recent trial and conviction less than one month away, how this will impact the betting odds remains unclear.
To gamble on an event requires one to risk money. This is where the Oddschecker comes into play, providing futures prices on each race (as of June 18). (Note that these numbers change constantly as new information becomes available, so a favorite today may be a long shot tomorrow.)
Biden is the clear favorite to gain the Democratic nomination (-303, which means that you must put down $303 to win $100 if he succeeds). The next most likely candidate is Gavin Newsom, at +1200 (which means that you must put down $100 to win $1,400 If he succeeds). Michelle Obama is a close third at +1800.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump in the clear favorite (at -2000). The next most likely candidate is Nikki Haley (at +3500). These numbers become somewhat meaningless at the extremes, with Ivanka Trump coming in at +16900 and Donald Trump Jr at +36900.
The futures prices get murkier with the vice president nominees for both parties.
On the Democrats’ side, there is utter chaos. At one time, Andrew Cuomo (former governor of New York) was at +300. He is no longer on the list of candidates. Most recently, Gavin Newsom is at +1400; Susan Rice (former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations) is at +2000; Michelle Obama is at +2400; Biden’s current VP, Kamala Harris, is at +2500; and Gretchen Whitmer (the governor of Michigan) is at +2700. The fact that the odds are so long for any one person suggest that the market has no idea who the vice president nominee will be — a literal crapshoot.
On the Republican side, the odds continue to gyrate unpredictably. At present, Doug Burgum (governor of North Dakota) is at +400, JD Vance (senator from Ohio) is at +650, and Ben Carson (former U.S. secretary of Housing and Urban Development) is at +700. Others in the mix include Tim Scott (senator from South Carolina) at +1200 and Marco Rubio (senator from Florida) at +1100. All these values suggest that the eventual VP nominee is not apparent at this time, with any one of these candidates — or possibly someone else — poised to be so named.
So what do all these numbers mean?
Even though both Biden and Trump should be the nominees for their respective parties, there are ample doubts. Given Biden’s unfavorable rating, coupled with Trump’s legal woes, the futures markets are wavering.
Moreover, when looking at the general election, the implied percent chance for either Biden or Trump to win the election is just under 80 percent. For two candidates who have supposedly locked up their nominations, this is surprisingly low.
On the matter of Kamala Harris, her days on the Democrat ticket in November appear to be coming to an end, which is consistent with her low favorability rating. Surprises certainly do and can occur, but with her futures price mired at +2500, the likelihood of her remaining on the ticket appears slim.
Given Biden’s age, a vote for him may be construed by some as a vote for the ticket’s vice president, much like what happened in 1944 with Franklin D. Roosevelt and running mate Harry Truman. Keeping Biden on the ticket necessitates replacing Harris with a more electable and favorable VP.
All these odds and futures will change as new information becomes available. Of course, betting on political elections in the United States is illegal, but the numbers provide information on trends and sentiments that may be informative on where the election is heading — and, more importantly, where the election may end up. That you can certainly bet on.
Sheldon H. Jacobson, Ph.D., is a professor of Computer Science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He applies his expertise in data-driven risk-based decision-making to evaluate and inform public policy.