President Biden’s plunging presidential fortunes may render his substantial funding advantage meaningless.
Biden’s low performance ratings are an effect of his larger problems. But they may also be the cause of another: an expansion of 2024’s presidential battleground. This means that the dollars his campaign could have used in crucial battleground states now will be needed to shore up support in states they presumed to be safely theirs.
If so, a spending strategy for a final kick at the race’s end may just not be plausible.
Biden has a substantial funding advantage of around $100 million. In March, Biden’s campaign spent just over $29 million — almost five times more than the $6.3 million he spent in February and far more than the Trump campaign’s $3.6 million (on legal fees). In April, the Biden campaign spent only slightly less: $25 million, almost four times more than Trump’s campaign.
Six states accounted for Biden’s electoral college victory in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin. According to RealClearPolitics’ polling averages, Biden currently trails in each one. Overall, in these battleground states, he trails by three points, 44.6 percent to 47.6 percent. By directing his entire large cash advantage at those states at the end, Biden could theoretically look to retain these states — and with them the presidency.
Biden’s problem is that his massive spending advantage hasn’t helped so far. Even after two months of considerable spending and Trump being locked in New York’s salacious hush money trial, Biden still trails Trump nationally in both the RealClearPolitics two-way race polling and five-way race polling.
Worse still, Democrats may not have all that excess cash to spend on just the six battleground states anyway.
Biden’s low polling numbers are not just a generic problem. They have specific implications: namely, that the 2024 battleground currently looks bigger than that of 2020. In addition to 2020’s six battleground states that Biden won by just a cumulative 311,000 votes, there were five others that Biden won by less than 11 percentage points — New Mexico (10.5 points), Virginia (10.1 points), Maine (9.1 points), New Hampshire (7.3 points) and Minnesota (7.1 points).
Recent Minnesota polling puts Biden’s advantage at just two points (44 percent to 42 percent). Other seemingly blue states have shown similar Biden attrition. Recent polling shows Biden up only 9 points in New York (he won it by 23.2 points in 2020), and 7 points in New Jersey (he won there by 15.8 points in 2020). This raises the question of where Biden stands in 2020’s other second-tier battleground states (New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire and Maine) that are not being regularly polled.
Biden may not need to worry about New York and New Jersey, but they — along with Minnesota and other second-tier 2020 battlegrounds he does need to worry about — indicate that the battleground is expanding. And where the Biden campaign’s worries are, its dollars must also follow. The upshot is that the massive cash advantage that Biden had to devote to six states likely must be spread over twice as many states and perhaps more.
Add to the expanding battleground Trump’s campaigning ability and Biden’s campaigning liability.
In politics, the ability to attract crowds and press coverage is known as “earned media.” Trump is an earned media machine. His recent New Jersey rally, which reportedly drew 100,000 people, is but one example. Trump can draw a crowd and cameras anywhere — even in a state that should be off the presidential game board for him. His ability to do this also means he doesn’t have to spend campaign money to get his message out.
In contrast, Biden is, in his own words, a “gaffe machine” before crowds and cameras. His latest came in Detroit, when he said “When I was vice president, things were kinda bad during the pandemic. And what happened was Barack said to me ‘go to Detroit and help fix it.'”
Biden can seemingly drop these anytime and anywhere. His liability for doing so means that he can undo in a single comment what millions in campaign advertising sought to do for him.
Just as the playing field is not level when it comes to campaign cash, it is also not level when it comes to campaigning itself.
Incumbency and money should be overwhelming advantages, the first helping produce the second and the two combining to help secure reelection. There is a reason why only three elected presidents (Hoover, Carter, and H.W. Bush) have lost reelection since 1916.
However, Biden’s incumbency, as evidenced by his bad approval ratings, is actually undermining his reelection effort. As this expands the 2024 battleground, it may well negate his funding advantage, too.
J.T. Young was a professional staffer in the House and Senate from 1987-2000, served in the Department of Treasury and Office of Management and Budget from 2001-2004, and was director of government relations for a Fortune 20 company from 2004-2023.