It’s a poll, not a crystal ball

Many political reporters and pundits are obsessing over election polls and acting like oddsmakers at a horse racetrack. But history shows they and their predecessors have a long record of making the wrong picks in race after race. 

Horse races are exciting to watch, especially if you’ve bet on the outcome. But the sure bet leading part-way through doesn’t always cross the finish line first. In the same way, a candidate leading in polls six months from Election Day doesn’t always get elected.

Instead of focusing attention on candidate character, records of accomplishment and failure or policy positions — the things we need to know to decide whom to vote for — many news organizations overemphasize polls. Some are now prematurely forecasting doom and gloom regarding President Joe Biden’s reelection chances.  

History provides some much-needed perspective. 

Pollster Gallup reports that in presidential polls taken in June in election years, Democratic Vice President Hubert Humphrey led in 1968, Democratic President Jimmy Carter led in 1980, Democratic Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis led in 1988 and Republican President George H.W. Bush led in 1992. Yet each one of these presidential nominees lost his race by decisive margins.

In its final 2016 election forecast, the FiveThirtyEight website predicted that Democratic former Secretary of State, first lady and Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) would be elected. It cited 15 polls taken in November — just days before the Nov. 8 election — that showed Clinton leading Donald Trump by 1 to 5 points. Only a single poll in November showed Trump in the lead — and by just 1 point. Clinton won the popular vote, but Trump was elected with an Electoral College majority. 

A 2020 study by the University of California at Berkeley that looked at 1,400 primary and general election polls in 2008, 2012 and 2016 found the polls accurately predicted voting results within their margins of error only 60 percent of the time the week before an election. The accuracy rate was even worse for polls conducted earlier. 

We must also remember that small polling leads are virtually meaningless because they fall within the polling margin of error. For example, the RealClearPolitics average of presidential polls shows Trump leading President Biden 46.6 percent to 45.7 percent — a lead of just 0.9 points. This effectively amounts to a tie, rather than a lead for Trump. 

A poll published this month by The New York Times alarmed some Democrats because it showed that Trump led among registered and likely voters in five of six swing states that Biden carried in 2020. Significant drops of Biden support among Black, Hispanic and young voters are a definite cause for concern, but Biden and his campaign are working hard to close the gap, scheduling events and media interviews targeted to reach these groups.   

Keep in mind that while many readers of political news have been following the presidential race closely since last year, as I have, millions of Americans less interested in politics won’t focus on the November election until September.  

The Biden campaign is well-positioned to compete for the support of late-deciding voters and people who aren’t even sure they will vote. It has millions of dollars more than the Trump campaign, while Trump has used over $100 million in campaign contributions to pay his legal fees to defend himself in civil and criminal court cases, The New York Times reported in March.  

The Biden campaign says it has opened over 150 offices with more than 400 staffers in seven swing states and will have 200 offices with 500 staffers by the end of this month. These staffers are knocking on doors and meeting people where they eat, work, play and pray, talking to folks one-on-one about what Biden has done and will do to help them build better futures for their families and our country. 

Biden is hitting the campaign trail regularly, doing more news interviews — including with Black and Hispanic media — and showcasing his energy, knowledge, experience, compassion, competence and effectiveness, as he did with his commanding performance in his State of the Union address in March. His appearances don’t make major national news, but they get heavy coverage in local media.  

In contrast, Trump is spending most days at his hush money trial in New York City, insulting the judge and prosecutors in hallway remarks to reporters in between his courtroom naps. He posts insults about Biden and others he detests on his social media site. He speaks to his adoring fans at rallies and in right-wing media interviews, but they would vote for him no matter what he did.  

Trump and the Republican National Committee have only a skeletal field operation in battleground states. Trump shows little interest in moderating his positions and behavior to appeal to independents, people of color, moderate Republicans (who continue to vote in primaries for his former challenger Nikki Haley) and others whose votes are up for grabs.  

Trump may be a convicted felon by the time voters begin casting early ballots. Inflation could slow, the Israel-Hamas war could end and voter turnout could be boosted by people supporting ballot measures upholding reproductive rights. All these developments would help Biden. Conversely, other developments could help Trump.  

This year’s presidential election will be close — decided by a few thousand voters in each of the battleground states. No poll six months from Election Day can tell us what will happen. But polls can help campaigns see where they are strong and where they are weak, so they can adjust spending, staffing and travel. 

A poll is a campaign tool — not a crystal ball. 

I’m certain that Biden, his campaign and the Democratic National Committee will work hard to win the support of late-deciding voters, Black people, Hispanics, young people and everyone else. I expect Biden will win the presidential race by reminding Americans of his many accomplishments and Trump’s many failures in office, along with the crimes the defeated and twice-impeached former president is accused of committing.

Donna Brazile is a political strategist, a contributor to ABC News and former chair of the Democratic National Committee. She is the author of “Hacks: Inside the Break-ins and Breakdowns That Put Donald Trump in the White House.”